Tornado Warning 37, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
225 AM CST SUN OCT 29 2000

PRECIPITATION TIMING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAIN CONCERNS TODAY.

NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF TSRA BISSECTING CWFA IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH AREA OF BEST DIFLUENCE.  LOOKS LIKE SOME MORNING WORDING
WILL BE NECESSARY NORTHEAST AS THIS BAND TRAVERSES AERA...BUT WITH
TIME CHANGE HOUR WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FAR THEY GET.

MEANWHILE UPPER LOW SEEN ON SATELLITE VCNTY CO/KS BORDER...SHOWED A
-19C 500MB TEMP AS PER 00Z UA.  EXTENSIVE MOISTURE IN PLACE OF
COURSE.  984 MB SURFACE LOW OVER SE CO AT 06Z.

AS PER PREVIOUS GID DISCUSSION AND NEW SPC SWODY1...SITUATION
SETTING UP FOR MINISUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADIC ACTIVITY.
LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS REGION AT TIME OF PEAK HEATING...WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY PRESENT.  ETA PROGS CAPES OF
1600-2000J/KG NEAR OR JUST BEYOND SERN BORDER OF CWFA.  BRNS 35-45.
HELICITY UP TO 150M2/S2 ON EASTERN PERIMITER WITH HIGHER VALUES
FARTHER EAST.  700 MB OMEGA VALUES LISTED AT 12 MICROBARS IN SE CWFA
BUT UP TO 25 MICROBARS SE OF HERE BY 00Z.  IN ADDITION...CERTAINLY
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR HAIL...AS WET BULB ZEROES LOWER TO 6-8 KFT
AGL.

BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE SCOURING OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
EFFECT INSOLATION.  MODELS ARE NOT ABLE TO DISCERN ANY APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DESPITE AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING TO
BE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER IT IS EVIDENT FROM 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGES THAT INROADS ARE BEING MADE. GIVEN THIS TREND AND
AMOUNT OF MIXING TO OCCUR IN STRONG DYNAMICS...BELIEVE SW AREAS WILL
AT LEAST SEE SOME HEATING IN AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SPREAD EAST.
THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT JUSTIFIED AND WILL ISSUE SPS AND
INCLUDE WORDING IN ZONES.  ALSO NEED AN EARLY EVENING MENTION OVER
EASTERN AREAS.

AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST FOG TO SET UP WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER WET
GROUND TONIGHT.  CURRENT MINS ARE IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE BUT STILL
BELOW LATEST ETA DEW POINT PROGS.  WILL UP MINS A BIT IN THE EAST AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE HARD TO CHASE.  FAIRLY LIGHT WIND
REGIME MONDAY SO WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH MAXES ALTHOUGH PARTIAL
SUN SHOULD ALLOW A CLIMB TO AT LEAST MID OR UPPER 60S.

BREAK FROM THE RAIN MUCH OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
TRANSITORY RIDGE DOMINATES WEATHER BEFORE NEXT POTENT SYSTEM EJECTS
OUT OF SW US.  TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN AND
LATEST PMDHMD HIGHLIGHTS THIS.   CURRENT ZFP HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND SEE NO REASON TOO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY.

.GID...NONE.

DROZD

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-292100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1000 AM CST SUN OCT 29 2000

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 4 PM TODAY...EAST
OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE KANSAS...TO MINDEN...TO LEXINGTON NEBRASKA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
AS THE LOW PASSES...COLD AIR ALOFT TEAMED WITH SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
WIND FIELDS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SMALL SUPERCELLS.
IN TURN...THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD BE MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY...AND BE PREPARED FOR QUICK DEPLOYMENT.
RESIDENTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY...SHOULD A
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH.

MORITZ