Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2000

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 15, 2000Towner County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2000, 6:48 PM CDT for Towner County, North Dakota. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 15, 2000, 6:48 PM CDT (23:48 UTC)
Expired
Jul 15, 2000, 7:30 PM CDT
In force
42 min
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area
Whole counties

County Towner County, ND

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 15, 4:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 239 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2000-07-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1025 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2000-07-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 213 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1025 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-492 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1382 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
213 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
264 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

The text of this product is not in the archive. The NWS text archive before 2002 is incomplete.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 2:15 PM CDT, 4 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 2:15 PM CDT, 4 hours 33 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
215 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2000

FCST CONCERNS MAINLY DEAL WITH SVR THREAT THIS EVENING.

.CURRENT...
19Z SFC FRONT ENTERING NW ND ATTM...WITH LINE OF CU WITH FRONT.  O/W
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH THRU FAR WRN ND INTO SFC LOW IN NE SD.  AGREE
WITH SWOMCD THAT TSRA INITATION WILL BEGIN IN NW ND WHERE CAP IS
WEAKEST AND MSAS SHOWS -10C SFC LI AND SFC MOISTURE POOLING WITH 70+
DEW PTS MOT/DIK AREAS.

DESPITE BEING TOO COOL WITH 85H TEMP INITIALIZATION...PREFER THE
MESO ETA MODEL THRU 60HRS.

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT TSRA WILL FORM IN NW ND THIS AFTN ALONG FRONT...THEN DEVELOP
SOUTH WITH TIME AS IT MOVES EAST.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH MID CLDS NOW
AROUND BIS/MOT FOR DEVELOPMENT TOO...BUT THIS AREA UNDER WARMER 70H
TEMPS. 70H THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE VALLEY AT 00Z THEN TEMPS COOL BY
03Z.  MEANWHILE...85H THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER THE VALLEY AT 03Z.
THUS EXPECT LINE OF TSRA TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWFA NR 00Z AND THEN
INTO THE VALLEY THE 02Z-05Z TIME FRAME AS WARMING IN LOW LEVELS
COINCIDES WITH COOLING AT MID LEVELS.  FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH (15/13KFT RESPECTIVELY).  CONVECTION WILL BE SFC
BASED...SO GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LINE OF TSRA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO MN.

.LONGER TERM...
FRONT TO CLEAR ERN ZONES EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING WESTERLY WINDS.  RH PROFILES SUGGEST A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH NEARLY ADIABATIC SOUNDING RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
ND ZONES.  HIGHS 75-80 NORTH TO 80-85 SOUTH.

SECONDARY FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THRU CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AS 85H TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MOISTING AND COOLING IN THE 1000-85H LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU
MONDAY SO WILL GO PTLY SUNNY.  MAV MOS MAY BE A TAD COOL ON
MONDAY...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD FWC/FAN.

.EXTENDED...LONG RANGE MODELS SIMILAR...BUT HAVE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES. MRF...UKMET AND CANADIAN SIMILAR WITH ECMWF A TAD
FASTER. SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH CWFA ON TUE...WITH A SFC LOW
APPROACHING BY 12Z WED. SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WED AND IS QUICKLY
REPLACED WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 12Z THU.
CONSEQUENTLY... MOVED PCPN OUT OF THU FORECAST INTO WED FORECAST.
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THROUGH REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK. NEXT SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN ROCKIES AND APPROACHES CWFA LATE ON
SAT...SO WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. AS FAR AS TEMPS...MRF SFC TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN FMR
GUIDANCE...WITH COOLEST TEMPS AT THE START OF EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST. THEREFORE...ONLY NEEDED MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT TEMP
FORECAST.

.FGF...NONE

RIDDLE/NG

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2000Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2000

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.