Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
230 PM CST SAT APR 1 2000

WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA DRIFTING NORTH WHILE COLD FRONT HAS
EDGED INTO EXTREME OF CWA.  GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE PLUS STRONG UPLIFT
WITH APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
NIGHT WITH SEVERE THREAT MAINLY FROM LARGE HAIL.  WILL POST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WITH AXIS HEAVIEST RAIN FROM NE OF SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN
TO CLL.  MODELS INDICATE SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN RAIN SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS FROM WEST MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPS A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE ON LOWS NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.  CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GOOD HIGH PRESSURE SURGE.

AUS 58/67/57/71 8667
SAT 60/69/58/73 8556
DRT 58/73/56/73 6445

.EWX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND
       MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-020600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
620 PM CST SAT APR 1 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD.  IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.

THIS SHALLOW COLD FRONT WAS RESULTING IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVER MEXICO JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM SOME OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO ARE A POSSIBILITY
SOUTH OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  MITIGATING FACTORS REDUCING THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE DIMINISHING STRENGTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...AND POTENTIAL FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS A VERY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET TRAVERSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING.  THE
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD AS THE STORMS LIKELY
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

FOR INFORMATION ON WEATHER THREATS IN SURROUNDING AREAS...REFER TO
OUTLOOKS FROM OFFICES IN MIDLAND...SAN ANGELO...FORT WORTH...
HOUSTON/GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI.