Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Kansas City, MO

FXUS63 KEAX 222111
AFDMCI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
411 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2000

ONCE AGN AN IMPRESSIVE TEMP GRADIENT ACR CWA THIS PM. READINGS
REACHED 100+ ACR ALL OF SW FCST AREA INCLUDING ALL 4 KC METRO ASOS
SITES WHILE IRK ONCE AGN PEAKED OUT IN UPR 80S. STACKED HEAT RDG
POSITIONED OVR N CNTL AR SO WRLY GRADIENT ON N SIDE OF RDG AND STG
SUBSIDENCE ALLOWED TEMPS TO GO TO RACES ACR SRN ZNS TDY. SPEC 1800
UTC TOP SNDG SHWS MIXED LYR THRU 700 HPA. CNVTV TEMPS REACHED IN
MOST LOCATIONS THIS PM AND VIS LOOP INDICATING ISOLD CU DVLPMNT BUT
DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY...3000+ J/KG CAPE/ -8 SFC LI'S... THERE
APPRS TO BE NO CNVGNC IN BNDRY LYR AT THIS TIME TO TRIGGER CNVTN.
HOWEVER STG TEMP GRADIENT ACR CWA SUGGESTS POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING INDUCED CNVTN THIS EVNG. REMOVED POPS IN SW ZNS BUT LEFT IN
REMAINDER OF FCST AREA FOR MENTIONED REASONS AND IN EVENT CNVTN
DVLPS OVR IA AND BLDS SWRD LTR TNGT. HOWEVER UPR FLW AND TCRNT
THERMAL ALIGNMENT DOES NOT SUGGEST SWRD MVMT OF ANY KINEMATIC OR
THERMODYNAMIC INDUCED CNVTV COMPLEX. SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FM
PERSISTANCE TEMPS FOR TNGT'S MINS.

WV LOOP AND 1200 UTC UPR ANLYS SHW SVRL MONSOONAL TYPE SHRT WVS
WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME IN MVMT AND MODELS TYPICALL DO A POOR
JOB WITH. HOWEVER ETA/NGM DO SEEM TO IDENTIFY FEATURE TO BUCK STG
UPR RDG LATE WED AND WED NITE. MID LVL LAPSE RATES RMN STEEP ENOUGH
THAT CNVTN SHLD DVLP TO OUR N ON WED AND DRIFT SWRD WED NITE AS UPR
FLW BECMS NW AGN. LEFT CHC POPS ALL ZNS ON WED XCPT SW AND INSERTED
ALL ZNS FOR WED NITE. WITH NO INDICATION OF FNT MAKING PROGRESS INTO
CWA ON WED BELIEVE FWC/FAN NUMBERS TOO COOL SO BOOSTED TEMPS BY
OPENING UP RANGE DOWNWARD FM TUE PERSISTANCE. GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM
REASONABLE FOR WED NITE.

STAYED WITH DRY FCST FOR THURS THRU XTND PRD. ONE CAN MAKE AN
ARGUMENT AT LEAST NOCTURNAL CNVTN TO DVLP WITH ANTICIPATED NW FLW
LATE IN THE WK BUT UNTIL EVIDENCE OF MID LVL MONSOONAL MSTR COMES
BACK INTO CNTL PLNS SAW NO REASON TO BRK UP DRY XTND FCST.

.EAX...NONE.

BODNER



KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...

FORECAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER...WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA MAINLY FROM LATE
EVENING ON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM BETHANY TO MOBERLY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.  THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LVQ