Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
200 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2000

MAIN FCST CONCERN IS IN SHORT TERM. STG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP
ACR CNTRL/ERN KS AS WRMFNT PRESSES SLOWLY ALONG KS/OK BDR. LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD SFC HTG ALONG BOUNDARY WITH MOIST
POOLING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF FRONT. MCONV ALSO IMPRESSIVE ALONG
BOUNDARY AS DRY AND HOT AIR SURGES NE OUT OF NW OK. HARD TO ARGUE
WITH SPC/HPC AND MODEL GRIDDS WHICH ALL SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR NORTH OF BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE AND MVG
EAST INTO CWA TNGT.

310K SFC SHOWS IMPRESSIVE ISENT LIFT TNGT AS LLJ VEERS AND
STRENGTHENS. THUNDERSTORMS IN KS XPCTD TO EVOLVE INTO MCS THIS
EVE WITH SFC-3KM SHR PROFILES OF 20-25 M/S SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING
WINDS EARLY TNGT...ESP WRN CWA WHERE INSTABILITY THE GREATEST.
SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH AS MCS MOVES EAST THROUGH CWA AS COMPLEX
ENCOUNTERS COOLER BOUNDARY TEMPS. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
STG ISENT LIFT TO KEEP THREAT OF TRW HIGH THROUGH NGT ACR MUCH OF
CWA.

MCS TO EXIT MUCH OF AT LEAST WRN CWA BY SUN AM. ISENT LIFT TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY DAYBREAK WITH TEMPS...CLD CVR AND AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT A CONCERN SUNDAY AFTN. IT IS LIKELY THAT A STRATUS
LAYER WL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF MCS LATE TNGT IN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
MCS OUTFLO MAY TEMPORARILY PUSH FNT A LTL SOUTH TNGT...AND WITH COOL
EAST WINDS AND WET GROUND...STRATUS MAY LINGER MUCH OF DAY IN NRN
ZONES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE NOT ARRIVING IN SRN ZONES TL AFTN.
THEREFORE...WL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL...CLOSE TO CURRENT ZONES
AND FAN/FWC TEMPS.

CANT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG WRMFNT SUN AFTN...BUT CHCS LOOK
SMALL WITH COOL TEMPS AND INCREASING CAP. HOWEVER...ANY WK MONSOONAL
SHRTWV ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RDG MAY TRIGGER A FEW RW/TRW...
HIGH BASED OR OTHERWISE.

AVN/ETA SIMILIAR IN SLO NWD MVMENT OF FNT SUN NGT AND MON IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT FNT DROPPING SE ACR NRN PLAINS. TEMPS TO JUMP ON MON AS
WRMFNT MOVES INTO NRN MO. TEMPS TRICKY ESP SINCE AIR MASS WARMING
NICELY IN SRN ARK AND OK. HOWEVER...WITH SFC LO IN WRN KS...SFC
WINDS SHOULD HAVE EASTERLY COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN
CHECK. WL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW POPS WITH FNT AND WK SHRTWVS IN
VICINITY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WL KEEP POPS TUES AND WED WITH FNT IN AREA. TRICKY
NW FLO TO LINGER THROUGH FRI...BUT WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS PAST
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

.EAX...NONE.

DB