Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

WELL...ACTIVE WX FOR TONIGHT STILL APPEARS ON TAP AND SITUATION
APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ABOUT AS EXPECTED MINUS A FEW DETAILS.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LEAD WAVE ALLOWING FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.  SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO KEEP CU
ALG MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES OVER ERN KS FROM DOING MUCH FOR NEXT SVRL
HOURS.  UPSHOT OF THIS IS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
OCCUR...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR NEED FOR MENTION OF SVR AND FF
WATCH.

SEE NO REASON FOR SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY NOW FORMING OVER CNTRL KS
TO DIMINISH (ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME MORE OF A MULTICELL COMPLEX) AS
IT MOVES EAST SINCE AMS IS RAPIDLY RECOVERING.  WITH UPPER SUPPORT
FROM WAVE MOVING THRU WRN KS AND LACK OF CAP...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD.  LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST WINDS WILL BACK AGAIN SOMEWHAT.  AS USUAL...LLJ WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED TONIGHT AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL BUMP UP AGAINST
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS WILL SET UP NEAR I-70.

WITH COPIOUS AMOUNT OF WATER AVAILABLE...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (THAT MAY HAVE AT LEAST SOME
TRAINING TO IT)...AND ANTECEDENT RAINFALL...AM PLANNING FFW WATCH
FOR SRN ZONES.  FFG VALUES FAIRLY LOW IN A FEW SPOTS...LESS THAN AN
INCH.  SOME SPOTS IN PROPOSED WATCH SOMEWHAT HIGHER...BUT STILL
THINK WATCH IS A GOOD IDEA.  NRN ZONES MAY END UP WITH DECENT
RAINFALL AS WELL...BUT ANTECEDENT RAIN WAS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
COMPARED TO 1-2 SOUTH OF I-70.  WILL JUST MENTION +RA IN NRN ZONES.

WITH STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS...MDT-STG INSTBY...AND PROBABLY
SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL TURNING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH BOUNDARIES
IN PLACE...WILL MENTION SVR FOR SWRN ZONES.

BEYOND OBVIOUS CONCERNS IN 1ST PERIOD...APPEARS AS THOUGH MAIN
SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DURING DAY ON SATURDAY.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST ERN ZONES.  NOT SURE
HOW MUCH EFFECT TONIGHTS CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOR
TMRW...BUT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHC POPS...HIEST IN EAST.
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR AREA SAT NIGHT.

TEMPS ALWAYS TOUGH WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.  IN GENERAL...PREFER
WARMER FWC IN 1ST PERIOD AND THEN A FWC/FAN BLEND SEEMS APPROPRIATE
THEREAFTER.

.EAX...FF WATCH TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEAVENWORTH KANSAS TO
FAYETTE MISSOURI.

JM

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
515 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

FORECAST: THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

ANOTHER CONCERN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE RAIN
THAT WAS RECEIVED IN THOSE AREAS LAST NIGHT...THE GROUND IS WET
ENOUGH THAT IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OCCUR TONIGHT...FLASH
FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TONIGHT AS
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

DISCUSSION: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
WESTERN KANSAS WILL TRACK ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NEBRASKA
KANSAS BORDER. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE VERY UNSTABLE...AND
WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS
WILL FORM NEAR THIS WARM FRONT AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE
INTO MISSOURI.

GK/JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
603 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTYu LOCATION....

0550 PM    2 N FORBES                MO   .88 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   HOLT                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY> LOCATION....

0608 PM    8 W ATCHISON              KS   70 MPH TSTM GUST
05/26/00   ATCHISON                       REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0623 PM    AMAZONIA                  MO   60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/26/00   ANDREW                         REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

KSZ025-102>105-MOZ011>013-020-021-028-029-270230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
903 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH CANCELLED...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 366 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INCLUDING SAINT JOSEPH
AND PORTIONS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. THE COUNTIES NO LONGER
UNDER THE WATCH INCLUDE...HOLT...ANDREW...DE KALB...DONIPHAN...
BUCHANAN...CLINTON...ATCHISON KANSAS...PLATTE...CLAY...LEAVENWORTH...
WYANDOTTE...AND JOHNSON KANSAS.

GK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
945 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0932 PM    7 S HOLDEN                MO   TORNADO
05/26/00   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY FIRE AND
                                          RESCUE.