Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

WELL...ACTIVE WX FOR TONIGHT STILL APPEARS ON TAP AND SITUATION
APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ABOUT AS EXPECTED MINUS A FEW DETAILS.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LEAD WAVE ALLOWING FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.  SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO KEEP CU
ALG MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES OVER ERN KS FROM DOING MUCH FOR NEXT SVRL
HOURS.  UPSHOT OF THIS IS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
OCCUR...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR NEED FOR MENTION OF SVR AND FF
WATCH.

SEE NO REASON FOR SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY NOW FORMING OVER CNTRL KS
TO DIMINISH (ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME MORE OF A MULTICELL COMPLEX) AS
IT MOVES EAST SINCE AMS IS RAPIDLY RECOVERING.  WITH UPPER SUPPORT
FROM WAVE MOVING THRU WRN KS AND LACK OF CAP...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD.  LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST WINDS WILL BACK AGAIN SOMEWHAT.  AS USUAL...LLJ WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED TONIGHT AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL BUMP UP AGAINST
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS WILL SET UP NEAR I-70.

WITH COPIOUS AMOUNT OF WATER AVAILABLE...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (THAT MAY HAVE AT LEAST SOME
TRAINING TO IT)...AND ANTECEDENT RAINFALL...AM PLANNING FFW WATCH
FOR SRN ZONES.  FFG VALUES FAIRLY LOW IN A FEW SPOTS...LESS THAN AN
INCH.  SOME SPOTS IN PROPOSED WATCH SOMEWHAT HIGHER...BUT STILL
THINK WATCH IS A GOOD IDEA.  NRN ZONES MAY END UP WITH DECENT
RAINFALL AS WELL...BUT ANTECEDENT RAIN WAS ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
COMPARED TO 1-2 SOUTH OF I-70.  WILL JUST MENTION +RA IN NRN ZONES.

WITH STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS...MDT-STG INSTBY...AND PROBABLY
SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL TURNING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH BOUNDARIES
IN PLACE...WILL MENTION SVR FOR SWRN ZONES.

BEYOND OBVIOUS CONCERNS IN 1ST PERIOD...APPEARS AS THOUGH MAIN
SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DURING DAY ON SATURDAY.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST ERN ZONES.  NOT SURE
HOW MUCH EFFECT TONIGHTS CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOR
TMRW...BUT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO CARRY CHC POPS...HIEST IN EAST.
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR AREA SAT NIGHT.

TEMPS ALWAYS TOUGH WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.  IN GENERAL...PREFER
WARMER FWC IN 1ST PERIOD AND THEN A FWC/FAN BLEND SEEMS APPROPRIATE
THEREAFTER.

.EAX...FF WATCH TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEAVENWORTH KANSAS TO
FAYETTE MISSOURI.

JM

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

FORECAST: THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST INTO MISSOURI BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING IN AN AREA
FROM ST JOSEPH...CHILLICOTHE...TO BOONVILLE...SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY AND SEDALIA AREAS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR.

ANOTHER CONCERN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE RAIN
THAT WAS RECEIVED IN THOSE AREAS LAST NIGHT...THE GROUND IS WET
ENOUGH THAT IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OCCUR TONIGHT...FLASH
FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SOME
AREAS.

DISCUSSION: A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ADD TO THE
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EVEN AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...INCLUDING NORTHERN MISSOURI...MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE WILL BE ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY...WHICH THIS EVENING
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR ST JOSEPH...TO NEAR BOONVILLE.

PC

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
515 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

FORECAST: THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

ANOTHER CONCERN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE RAIN
THAT WAS RECEIVED IN THOSE AREAS LAST NIGHT...THE GROUND IS WET
ENOUGH THAT IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OCCUR TONIGHT...FLASH
FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TONIGHT AS
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

DISCUSSION: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
WESTERN KANSAS WILL TRACK ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NEBRASKA
KANSAS BORDER. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE VERY UNSTABLE...AND
WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS
WILL FORM NEAR THIS WARM FRONT AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE
INTO MISSOURI.

GK/JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
603 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTYu LOCATION....

0550 PM    2 N FORBES                MO   .88 INCH HAIL
05/26/00   HOLT                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC.