Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
315 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000

ACTIVE WX DAY EXPECTED AS WINTERTIME DYNAMICS ACT UPON SPRINGTIME
AIR MASS.  WILL DISCUSS CONVECTIVE CONCERNS SHORTLY...BUT FIRST WILL
ADDRESS NEED FOR WIND ADVY.  MODELS SHOW 60 KT 850 WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SRN ZONES.  SEEMS REASONABLE WITH NCNTRL OK PROFILER
ALREADY SHOWING 65 KTS THIS MORNING.  THAT KIND OF WIND SPEED OFF
THE DECK MAKES ME NERVOUS...BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS WISH TO
HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVY ATTM.  FIRST...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND PSBLTY OF
PCPN SHOULD LIMIT MIXING SOMEWHAT.  SECOND...HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE
SETUP BEFORE...IMPRESSIVE SRLY LLJ DURING DAY...AND SFC WINDS NEVER
RESPOND QUIT LIKE ONE MIGHT EXPECT W/O GOOD SUNSHINE.  THIRD...ANTICIPATE
CONVECTIVE WATCHES FOR AT LEAST PORTION OF AREA...SO KEEPING THINGS
SIMPLE PROBABLY NOT A BAD IDEA.

NOW FOR THE CONVECTION.  SPC MDT RISK LOOKS REASONABLE.  TSRA ALL
BUT A CERTAINTY...SEVERITY AND ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF SCENARIO TOUGHER
TO FIGURE.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAPDILY DEVELOPING WAA WING
WILL LIFT NORTH AS LINEAR TSRA OVER KS MARCHES NE.  KS LINE MAY MISS
ALL BUT NW THIRD OF CWA AS WE WAIT FOR COMPLEX OVER WRN OK TO MOVE
NE.  THINK BEST SVR THREAT WILL BE WITH THIS ROUND.  IF WAA WING
LIFTS OUT FAST ENOUGH...AND KS CONVECTION DOESN'T DEBRIS SKY UP TOO
BAD...SRN/SERN ZONES MAY HEAT UP PRETTY WELL.  CURRENTLY FIGURING
1000-1500 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE TO AFTERNOON STORMS.  SOME LOW LEVEL
TURNING IN WINDS...THOUGH MAYBE NOT THE BEST BALANCE BETWEEN SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY.  BIGGEST CONCERN IS DMGG WINDS AND WILL HIT THIS
HARDEST IN HWO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVELY MIXING
DOWN 60 KT LLJ.  AT ANY RATE...MOST ZONES WILL HAVE MENTION OF SVR.

WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND MAYBE ALL
NIGHT FOR ERN ZONES AS DRY LINE STILL WEST OF CWA AT 00Z AND DOESN'T
CLEAR CWA UNTIL PROBABLY JUST BEFORE 12Z SAT.

NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN THREAT ON SAT...BUT WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPS ALF MAY GEN A FEW SHRA.  CONSIDERED
REMOVING...BUT WILL LET DAY CREW TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT IT.

TPEMPS PRETTY TRICKY GIVEN DYNAMIC SITUATION.  FWC APPEARS TOO COOL
ALMOST ACROSS THE BOARD...APPARENTLY IT STILL THINKS IT IS
FEBRUARY.  WARMER FAN NUMBERS STRONGLY PREFERRED.

.EAX...NONE

JM

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

FORECAST:  A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL ARRIVE IN EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.  LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.  THE
AREA THAT APPEARS TO STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY BUTLER TO MACON MISSOURI.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION...SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION:  A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT.  STRONG WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIR INTO THE AREA.  BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAYC HELP MIX SOME OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.  A DRY LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

JM