Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

THE MOST EXCITEMENT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY IS ANTICIPATING
EXACTLY HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BLOSSOM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND HOW
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BEFORE MORNING WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. AFTER TONIGHT, METEOROLOGICAL EXCITEMENT
DIMINISHES QUICKLY.

CONVECTION LIKELY WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. PRESSURE TENDENCIES
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT HAS SLOWED SINCE EARLIER TODAY BUT STILL IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BY 230 PM THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION SOUTH
OF LIBERAL, AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD PROCEED QUICKLY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WINDS ON THE GRANADA PROFILER HAVE WEAKENED DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER TWO TO THREE KILOMETERS IS
NOT AS STRONG AS WOULD BE DESIRABLE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS IN THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEVERTHELESS,
STORMSCALE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TORNADOGENESIS IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED AREAS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE AVN CARRIES THIS WAVE OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATER
TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
BEHIND THE MAIN SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE WYOMING TROUGH AND A FEW
HOURS OF WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE LIKELY WILL OCCUR. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S BEFORE
SUNRISE.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BEFORE SUNRISE OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN HOLD
STEADY OR BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY.

CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO STRONG SOUTH FLOW AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. MOS APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR THURSDAY BUT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE AND BRINGING THE NEXT UPPER LVL TROF SE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH SFC LEE TROF WEST OF THE AREA AND GOOD CHC OF MOISTURE
RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK WILL INTRODUCE SLT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME
FOR FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PRESENT THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WAVES...CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHC FOR PCPN EITHER ON SAT OR EARLY SUN. HOWEVER WITH TIMING AN
ISSUE WILL OPT TO KEEP WEEKEND PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPS,  A
BRIEF COOL DOWN LOOKS IN ORDER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMER TEMPS
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT TEMP FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS WILL LITTLE, IF ANY, CHANGES PLANNED IN THE LATER PERIODS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS
ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 055/083 054/090 057 200
GCK 052/082 052/090 056 200
EHA 054/084 054/092 055 100
LBL 055/083 054/091 057 200
HYS 055/081 053/089 055 200
P28 060/081 055/090 061 800

.DDC...NONE.

01/BURGERT

KSZ065-066-079-087-140030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 443 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS...

MEADE...EDWARDS...PAWNEE...STAFFORD...

IN THESE AREAS CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

JOHNSON