Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
321 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000

ONCE AGAIN, CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS IS EXTENT OF
CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE BLOB ALREADY GOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS LOCATED FROM
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SE COLORADO. WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW
OVER THIS AREA, HAVE A FEELING THAT THIS BLOB WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND FEED OFF OF THE MOISTURE AXIS. OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION GOING
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ALSO FEEDING INTO THIS
COMPLEX. UPSHOT CONCERNING THESE TWO AREAS AND THEIR FUTURE
EVOLUTION IS THAT THE CWA MAY REMAIN PCPN FREE TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
GIVEN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA, WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW POP
FOR TONIGHT SAVE THE SE CWA.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POPS. TEMPS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THANKS TO
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL TEMPS. THEREFORE, GUIDANCE LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE FOR HIGHS.

FOR TUESDAY, ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL START TO
PUSH INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY. GOOD UPPER VORT WILL PUSH EAST
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO FORCE THE FRONT THROUGH. WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD, I WILL FORECAST POPS FOR
THE CWA FROM LOW TO HIGHER WEST TO EAST. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE RATHER WARM, SO I WONT BACK OFF FORECASTED READINGS LIKE
THE FWC/FAN SUGGEST FOR TUESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

GENERALLY COOLER FORECAST TODAY THAN YESTERDAY/S EXTENDED.  ONE FRONT
PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO PASS THROUGH CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.  WILL BRING 550-555 DECAMETERS INTO AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATE THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM UP.  THEN, MRF/PREV ECMWF
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH MUCH LESS
STACKED MOISTURE THEN WITH FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THROUGH DAY 7 AN
UPPER RIDGE STAYS ANCHORED OFF CALIFORNIA COAST.  WAVES COME RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE IN WESTERN CANADA, THEN DEVELOP
OR AMPLIFY AS THEY CROSS NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS REGION.  DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PRECIP PAST WED MORNING, BUT DID CONSIDER MENTIONING SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.  AT THIS TIME, WILL LEAVE OUT OF SATURDAY
FORECAST, AND LET LATER SHIFTS INTRODUCE CONVECTION IF FORECASTS
SUGGEST IT.  TEMPS FOR THUR-SAT PERIODS 5-10 DEGREES  COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY/S EFP.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 067/090 068/095 061 222
GCK 065/092 066/094 059 222
EHA 063/094 066/092 061 222
LBL 068/092 068/094 063 222
HYS 067/092 069/096 057 222
P28 070/090 071/093 066 022

.DDC...NONE.

MCCAMMON/BURKE