Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIALS.

21/12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWING BEST 8H AND 7H BAROCLINIC ZONES OVER
OR JUST EAST OF MY NORTHEAST COUNTIES. SFC QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
ALSO LOCATED IN THIS AREA. W/V SHOWING VORT LOBE EXTENDING FROM
MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 2H 70KT JET ALONG THE
NE/KS BORDER. THE THIS COMBINATION IS HELPING TO TOUCH OFF
CONVECTION IN THE GLD CWFA ATTM. VIA BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTATION AND
PROGRESSION OF CELLS AS DEPICTED ON KGLD AND KDDC 88-DS...MY
NORTHEAST SHOULD HAVE EXPERIENCE STORMS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE REST OF THE CWFA IS STILL RECOVERING
FROM LAST NIGHT/S STORMS. 7H TO THE SURFACE VIA PROFILER DATA SHOWS
DISORGANIZED WIND DIRECTIONS. BELIEVE THAT BY SUNDOWN SURFACE SOUTH
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF...AT
LEAST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. WESTERN COLORADO OBS ALREADY
HAVE RETURNED TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 KTS. IF TORNADOES DEVELOP
TONIGHT...BELIEVE MY WESTERN AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN
THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE.

BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTS ALL NIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THIS IS BASED UPON EXTRAPOLATED TIMING OF THE
VORT LOBE IN MONTANA. ALSO BASED UPON THIS EXTRAPOLATION AND
LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
EAST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF LAST
NIGHT...AROUND 60 DEGREES.

WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS AN
AREA NORTHEAST OF A PRATT TO DIGHTON LINE. THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED
THE MOST RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AND LOOKS TO BE THE
AREA WHERE THE MOST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY...THAT OF LINGERING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON ELEVATED
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN TONIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE
TO INCREASE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WOULD PLACE
THE TRACK OF ANY COMPLEXES FARTHER EAST. ALSO...WITH THE INCREASED
AMPLITUDE RIDGE...THE POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE MAY BE DELAYED. I WILL NOT PULL POPS COMPLETELY...BUT
GO IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SOUTHWEST AND LOW END OF THE CHANCE
RANGE NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO BE IN UPSLOPE AT BOTH THE SFC AND 8H VIA
THE AVN. AVN FCST SFC DEW PTS INDICATE THAT A DRYLINE MAY ESTABLISH
ITSELF NEAR THE CENTER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. PROGGED UPSLOPE FLOW OF
EASTERLY MOIST FLOW INTERACTING ALONG THIS DRYLINE MAY TOUCH OFF
SOME CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. AVN MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR DDC
INDICATE THAT IF THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT INDUCED ALONG THIS
DRYLINE...THE RELATIVELY WEAK CAP AT 800 TO 750 MB COULD BE BROKEN
AND THEN WE WOULD HAVE ABOUT 2000 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL WEST TO BELOW NORMAL
EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MOST DOMINATE.

KUDOS TO ICT FOR FAA COORD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, THUS KEEPING THE THREAT OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
SURFACE BOUNDARIES LIKELY IN THE VICINITY. MAIN DIFFICULTY IS WHEN
TO TAKE THE CHANCES OUT. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OF WHAT THE
SW CONUS HIGH WILL DO...IF IT WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OR
REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT OVER THE US/MEX BORDER. MRF ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING
THE FORMER AND WILL END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SLOW
WARMING TREND IS STILL IN ORDER AND WILL NOT VARY MUCH FROM GOING
TEMPS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 060/084 060/087 063 8-2
GCK 060/085 060/088 063 8-2
EHA 060/088 060/093 063 8-2
LBL 060/087 060/089 063 8-2
HYS 060/082 058/078 061 +23
P28 060/085 062/080 065 832

.DDC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
KSZ030-031-045-046-065-066-079-081.

SLEIGHTER/POAGE