Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE STORM CHANCES AND HOW COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATMOSPHERE IS LIGHTING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER HIGH PLAINS IS HEATED AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKE
OFF.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS FOCUSING
SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY.
OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF FROM
COLORADO.  MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ATTM.

WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.  PER SPC
DISCUSSION FEEL THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS PRETTY HIGH AND
WILL MENTION IN ZONES.  OTHER THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING IN
TREGO, ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES.  THIS AREA HAS SEEN SOME REPEATED
HEAVY RAINS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AT AN
INCH OR LESS.  FEEL THAT CONVECTION FIRING OVER NORTHERN ELLIS AND
TREGO COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WITH CONVECTION IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO PRODUCE SOME CELL TRAINING OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT FROM NEBRASKA BLOWS THROUGH THE AREA.  A ROUGH TIMING
OF THE FRONT WOULD PUT IT THROUGH THAT AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF CWA HAS BEEN DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY WATCHES.

NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR TYPE WEATHER PATTERN AS
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE
SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER FLOW DOWN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE CURRENT TREND FOR HIGH POPS AT NIGHT AND LOW POPS IN THE
DAYTIME.  WILL GO CLOSE TO FAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND AT
OR BELOW FAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MRF CONTINUES TO HAVE FARTHEST
WEST POSITION AND GREATEST AMPLITUDE TO THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN CONTINUE MORE A FLATTENED RIDGE HIGH CENTERED CLOSER TO
TEXAS. THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...
THAT OF PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
OR VERY CLOSE TO KANSAS. GIVEN THIS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES OF
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY
PART. KNOWING WHICH DAYS POTENTIAL COLD FRONTS WILL OR WILL NOT PUSH
ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION IS TOO TOUGH TO CALL THIS FAR OUT GIVEN
THIS ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...WILL NOT GET TOO FANCY ON THE TEMP
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME INDICATE VIA THE MRF THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY
INCHING EASTWARD TOWARD WEEKS END. GIVEN THIS...I WILL TREND THE
LOCAL 8 TO 10 FORECAST TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS WELL AS PRECIP
CHANCES.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 064/084 062/082 061 726
GCK 062/083 060/079 059 726
EHA 063/082 061/082 059 625
LBL 063/083 062/082 060 726
HYS 063/080 060/078 060 726
P28 067/086 066/084 064 726

.DDC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS  KSZ030-
031-046.

GERARD/SLEIGHTER