Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCE OF EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORMS AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS.

SURFACE OBS AT 19Z SHOW A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES LYING AROUND THE
AREA.  THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WAS
LOCATED IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A
WEAK COOL FRONT WAS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  88D VELOCITY DISPLAY
SHOWED THIS FRONT LOCATED IN NORTHERN MEADE AND CLARK COUNTIES
EXTENDING WEST.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.  VISIBLE SAT LOOP SHOWS
CONVECTION NOW FIRING FROM THE CHEYENNE RIDGE SOUTH TO THE PALMER
DIVIDE.

HAVE CONTINUED CURRENT FORECAST OF FAIRLY HIGH POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.  PROFILERS SHOWING SOME
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OFF THE SURFACE OVER THE BOUNDARY.
THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THEN CHANCES ARE PRETTY GOOD FOR US
TO SEE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SOUTH.  WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ZONES.
THINK THAT ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY OUT OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY SO WILL GO WITH VERY LOW POPS TOMORROW.

AVN MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE, DON'T SEE
WHY WE WON'T HAVE ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS.

WITH THE MEAN SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITION TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND GO A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH
MORE LOW CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REINFORCING SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

IN THE EXTENDED THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO
GO. THE MRF IS TOO DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE COME THE LATER
PERIODS...THAT OF FORMING A RIDGE THAT BISECTS NORTH AMERICA FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA NORTH TO 80 N LAT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
APPEAR MORE REASONABLE OF PERIODICALLY FLATTENING OUT THE UPPER HIGH
ALLOWING FOR DISTURBANCES TO PASS ACROSS KANSAS. AND EVEN THESE TWO
MODELS VARY AS TO WHAT DAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WE ARE IN...OVERNIGHT MCS-STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE
CURRENT WORDING OF /EVENING AND OVERNIGHT/ THUNDERSTORMS.

UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHEN THIS PATTERN WILL END...I WILL
CONTINUE LONG RANGE TREND OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPS WITH
PRECIP MENTIONED AS A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 066/087 063/082 062 6-6
GCK 064/086 061/081 060 6-6
EHA 065/088 062/080 061 606
LBL 066/087 063/082 062 6-6
HYS 065/085 060/080 059 416
P28 068/089 066/085 065 616

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD/SLEIGHTER