Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2000

TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN THIS PACKAGE.  SEVERE THREAT THROUGH LATE
EVENING...THEN HIGH WINDS TOMORROW.

20Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED COLD FRONT PLOWING EAST THROUGH TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 60 DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS, AND MIDDLE 60S INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  RADAR SHOWS NEAR
SOLID LINE OF 45 TO 50 DBZ FROM NORTH OF GLD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
KS/CO BORDER, THEN SWINGS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  THINK THESE STORMS WILL GET BOWED INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND PRODUCE PLENTY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  CAN'T
ARGUE WITH SPC ON TORNADO POSSIBILITY, AS LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
SHOWING GOOD STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE CURVE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY AND SEVERE WORDING MOST LOCALS THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH TORNADO WATCH HEADLINE.  THINK THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF REPORTS AND GOOD LIGHTNING SHOW AFTER DARK SETS IN.

LOOKING AHEAD, AFTER SHORTWAVE CROSSES, PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AREA WEST OF THE ROCKIES.  THINK
THE WEST MOST COUNTIES COULD DIMINISH BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL GO WITH HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR ALL OF CWA FOR SIMPLICITY.

TEMPS WILL BE DEFINITELY AFFECTED BY BOTH PRECIP AND WINDS, BUT
WILL PLAN TO UNDERCUT FAN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR HIGHS, BUT NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT CUT FROM FWC.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LIMITED TIME FOR GOOD INTERROGATION OF EXTENDED MODELS TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE, BUT WILL MOVE UP RAIN CHANCES TO
INCLUDE ALL OF FRIDAY WITH FASTER SPEED OF SHORTWAVE TROF. ZONAL FLOW
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK WAVES
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP ALMOST ANY DAY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR LATER PERIODS ATTM WITH TIMING BEING UNCERTAIN
AT BEST.

COORDINATED WITH PUB, SPC AND GLD.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL
FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 045/064 037/060 034 610
GCK 043/065 035/061 032 610
EHA 039/064 036/059 033 710
LBL 044/065 038/061 035 71-
HYS 043/059 035/053 032 531
P28 048/066 041/063 038 621

.DDC...HIGH WIND WATCH ALL OF CWA WEDNESDAY. ZONES KSZ031-031-
043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-

BURKE/POAGE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-080600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1142 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2000

...SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 70 MPH, ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING.  THE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WEST OF LINE FROM SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL AFTER 1 PM CST, THEN PROGRESS EAST OF THAT LINE AFTER
3 PM.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGS COLD AIR INTO THE AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE.  A DRY-LINE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS FROM THE WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  AT THE SAME TIME,
STRONG SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
SURFACE MOISTURE NORTHWARD, COLLIDING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DRY-LINE BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THOUGH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MEADE TO ST. JOHN.

THE FOLLOWING ARE SPOTTER TALKS SCHEDULED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
ALL TIMES ARE AT 7 PM UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

MAR  7.....CANCELLED - RESCHEDULED FOR APRIL 18TH.
MAR  8...FORD CO....DODGE CITY, ROSE ROOM, BASEMENT OF GOVT CENTER.
MAR  9...MEADE CO...MEADE FIRE STATgION, 725 W CARTHAGE.
MAR 13...HAMILTON CO...630 MST, SYRACUSE, COURTHOUSE BASEMENT.
MAR 14...ELLIS CO...HAYS, STERNBERG MUSEUM.

YOU CAN FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AT OUR WEBSITE AT:
http://www.dodgecity.net/nws

BURKE