Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND TEMPS ALL PERIODS.

12Z UA MAPS SHOWING H5 HIGH EVER SO SLOWLY BUILDING IN WITH WARMEST
TEMP RECORDED AT DDC. 7H RIDGE WAS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK
WAVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH 7H TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS. 8H MOISTURE IS EVEN HIGHER WITH DEWPOINTS
ABOVE 14 CELSIUS COMMON THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
18Z SFC MAP SHOWED FRONT ALONG KS/NE BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS AT OR
ABOVE 70 F FROM DDC TO HLC EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE
HIGH WITH 135 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DDC. 88D SHOWING BOUNDARY FROM
LANE COUNTY ARCING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN FORD COUNTY AND INTO BEAVER
COUNTY. STORMS ALREADY FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IN EASTERN
COLORADO.

ATMOSPHERE LIKELY UNCAPPED AT THIS TIME WITH 90S/70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. FORCING MECHANISMS SEEM TO BE THE VORT MAX OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ATTM AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND BOUNDARY. MANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO BE CREATED AND CREATE ENOUGH LIFT
TO REALIZE THE 4500 J/KG CAPE. COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE BEST IN THE
CENTRAL AND WEST AND WILL GO HIGHEST POPS HERE. AM A BIT CONCERNED
ABOUT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL, HOWEVER NEARLY 2 HOURS OF STATIONARY
SEVERE CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SOUTHEASTERN KEARNY COUNTY PRODUCED
LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. WITH STORM MOVEMENT GREATER
THAN YESTERDAYS, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT THIS TIME.

LEE TROF/DRYLINE TO TIGHTEN UP TOMORROW AND MOVE OUT INTO THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS
AND BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE EAST FOR NOW WITH STORM MOTIONS BEING WEAK AND CONVECTION
SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO FINALLY ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY.
WARMING AND DRYING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. WEAK
WAVES SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE GETTING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE HIGH.
WILL THUS KEEP POPS OUT THE OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS, WILL GO NEAR TO ABOVE PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE TOMORROW GIVEN DRYER SFC CONDITIONS IN
THE WEST. WILL TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO WEDNESDAY, MORE IN LINE WITH
MEV NUMBERS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

AGAIN...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD RIDGE FROM EAST TO
WEST DURING THE PERIOD.  LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S/A70 THROUGH DAY 7 WITH STRONG CAP.  WILL KEEP EXTENDED
PERIOD DRY.  AND AM SCEPTICAL ABOUT MENTION OF 100S IN GOING
FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WILL
LIKELY GO WITH 90S.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 072/095 069/097 069 422
GCK 070/096 067/098 068 422
EHA 067/097 065/099 067 422
LBL 068/096 066/097 068 422
HYS 072/095 068/097 069 422
P28 074/094 071/095 070 3--

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/REITER