Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000

...PROBLEM THIS CYCLE CENTERS ON POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT IN MY EASTERN ZONES...

12Z UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWING 150KT+ H3 JET
STREAK DIVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND H5 LOW AND -33 TO -34C COLD POOL
OVER NEVADA STILL DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA. H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDS FROM IDAHO SOUTH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA.  H8 THERMAL ANALYSIS
HAS H8 FRONT FROM WESTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO CENTRAL ARIZONA.  OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H8 A WARM TONGUE OF 16 TO 17C TEMPERATURES
ARCHES FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND JUST EAST OF AMARILLO TO NEAR WICHITA
KANSAS.  +10 H8 DEWPOINT AT DEL RIO IDENTIFIES A NARROW TONGUE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH NORTHEAST JUST EAST OF THE TERMAL
RIDGE AND ALONG THE 40+KT LOW LEVEL JET. AT THE SURFACE DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A DRY
LINE BEGINING TO SET UP FROM WEST KANSAS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. SURFACE LOW IN LEE SLOPES OF COLORADO
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NICELY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM WAVE.

H5 COLD POOL WELL SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS APPEAR TO BE
DOING VERY WELL WITH DIGGING JET INTO CALIFORNIA. MODEL FORECASTS
ARE VERY CLOSE IN THE NEAR TERM AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 36 HOURS. BELIEVE ETA WILL HANDLE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEST AND WILL GENERALLY USE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BACK THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH THIS EVENING HOWEVER SO WILL ADJUST
PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST.

EXPECT LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BACK NICELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACCENTING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRY
LINE AND INCREASING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  BY 600PM WILL LOOK FOR
MUCAPES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO BE IN THE 1500 TO 2000
J/KG RANGE WITH ETA PROGGED LIFTED INDEXES OF AROUND -8 AND 700-
500 DELTA T/S OF -8 TO -8.5. THE H3 JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO ROUND
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
600PM AS WELL.  SPC AND AFWA APPEAR TO BE ON THE MARK WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING INTO LINES AND POSSIBLE BOWS.
THE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL REMAIN FARTHER
SOUTH THAN MY FA BUT STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WILL STILL BE RIPE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GOING
FORECAST IS DOING WELL ALONG THESE LINES AND WILL NEED ONLY SOME
MINOR TWEEKS.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND THENCE NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS REGION.  THE ETA SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STACK NEARLY
VERTICALLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AFTER
OCCLUDING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FRIDAY WILL REQUIRE KEEPING SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE DURING
THE DAY FOR LOW TOPPED COLD AIR CONVECTION.  A ISOLATED MINI
SUPERCELL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN MY FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING STRONG
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...MUCH COOLER AIR AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WHILE THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE STAYS WELL SOUTH ACROSS
TEXAS. THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARGUES FOR A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO TEMPS WILL BE A
PROBLEM AS THE DOWNSLOPE OVERCOMES THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. THE WRAP AROUND ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES BUT DOUBT THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DECIDE WHETHER TO HAD POPS OR NOT IN THAT TIME
FRAME.

SINCE MODELS ARE DOING WELL WILL GENERALLY TRUST FWC TOO THOUGH WILL
ADJUST TEMPS A BIT IN THE 3RD AND 4TH PERIODS FOR THE DOWNSLOPE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LATEST RUN OF THE MRF HAS SOMEWHAT DAMPENED OUT AND SPED UP THE
PACIFIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE ON MONDAY.
THIS LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN AND LAST RUN OF THE ECMWF.  UKMET
WAS VERY SIMILAR WITH THE MRF UNTIL THE 120 HR TIME FRAME WHEN IT
SUDDENLY DEEPENS AND SLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE PROGRESSING IT EASTWARD.  WITH THE CONTINUOUS TRAIN OF
WAVES COMING IN OFF THE NRN PACIFIC THINK THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY.  MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNING NORTH INTO KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
WAVE.

FOR THE LATER PERIODS...DPROG/DT OF THE MRF SHOWS THAT IT HAS
WEAKENED THE NEXT WAVE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS.  WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL GO WITH A PERSISTANCE FORECAST AND INCLUDE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 043/056 030/055 032 52-
GCK 040/056 028/055 030 42-
EHA 038/057 028/056 033 200
LBL 042/058 032/057 033 200
HYS 052/058 033/052 029 631
P28 054/060 037/056 032 +60

.DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON/GERARD