Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
135 PM MDT THU AUG 3 2000

CHC OF TSTMS AND THEIR INTENSITY REMAIN THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IN
THE FORECAST PACKAGE.  HAD ONE CELL IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE VALLEY
WHICH SHOWED SOME DECENT REFLECTIVITY...THOUGH IT WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY IN LESS THAN 30 MINS.  NICER LOOKING CELL UP IN RIW CWA.
WOULD EXPECTED THE TREND TO BE FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
TO SUPPORT SOME SVR E OF THE LAR RANGE INTO THE EVE. WARM TEMPS ALF
AND PRETTY MINIMAL SPEED SHEAR WILL BE WORKING TO LIMIT SVR
COVERAGE.

ANOTHER QUESTION REMAINS THE CHC OF TSTMS ON FRI.  FWC THE ONLY
MODEL WHICH INCREASES POPS OVER TODAY. WV IMGRY SHWS AN UPR LVL
CIRCULATION OVER NV...WHICH STARTED OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA.  WITH THIS FEATURE RIDING UP THE W SIDE OF THE UPR HI...
AND LIKELY TO TURN E ONCE IT TOPS THE UPPER HI...THERE MAY INDEED BE
ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LAYER
RH PROGS FROM EACH MODEL SHOWING SOME DECREASE ON FRI SO DONT PLAN TO
PLAY UP CHANCES TOO MUCH.

TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO GOING VALUES THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  THINK THE
WARMER FAN/FMR BETTER ON SAT GIVEN THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE WITH LESS
RH/FEWER TSTMS.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TREND OF A THREAT OF OF MAINLY LT DAY SHWRS IN TSTMS IN THE SHORT
TERM FCST CARRIES OVR ON SUN AND MON.  LO LVL ERLY FLW AND A LESS
AMPLIFIED WRLY FLW ALFT...ALLOWING SVRL SHRTWV TROFS TO MOV ACRS THE
AREA...WILL PERSIST ON SUN AND MON.  NEW MRF IS SIM TO THE LATEST
NOGAPS IN DEPICTING A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND RIDGING OVR THE
PLNS THAN THE PREV MRF RUN.  SIG SHRTWV TROF MOVG ACRS SRN CAN IS
FASTER ON THE NEW MRF THAN PREV RUN AND WILL PUSH A PRBL DRY CDFNT
THRU OUR AREA TUE NGT.  MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MSTR WILL REMAIN TO
OUR TUE THRU WED...WITH RDG REBUILDING TO OUR W WED NGT AND THU.
NEW MDLS KEEP THE CWA DRY TUE THRU THU AND FOR NOW THIS LOOKS FINE.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COOLER BHND THE FROPA FOR WED AND THU.

.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

BANN/STARK

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-031900-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1042 AM MDT THU AUG 3 2000

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SOME STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...MAINLY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.  FURTHER WEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKER BUT
THEY WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS.

BAlNN
WCJIN-WYSE-WYNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE, WY
325 PM MDT THU AUG 3 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    CHEYENNE                  WY   59 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
08/03/00   LARAMIE                        CYS ASOS

0243 PM    7 NE CHEYENNE             WY   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
08/03/00   LARAMIE

GRIFFITH