Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
230 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION.  THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH COLD FROPA/SUNSET AS VERY DRY
MID LEVEL AIR BEGINS TO POUR INTO PA.  WILL CARRY POPS THIS EVENING
IN THE EAST...AND MAY USE THE RARE "EARLY THIS EVENING" PERIOD
ELSEWHERE (WHERE NEEDED) TO TIME THE ENDING OF PRECIP RATHER THAN GO
WITH POPS TONIGHT FOR JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO
MAKE MY FINAL ANSWER UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME.

UPPER LOW AND COLDER AIR SWEEP INTO PA OVERNIGHT.  THE NGM/ETA ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE COLD SURGE LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS CLOSE TO
FWC.  COLD POOL ALOFT AFFECTS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...TRAPPING SOME SC UNDER THE INVERSION.  VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BE IN ORDER FOR THE NORTH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AREAWIDE ON SUN.  FWC/FAN TEMPS APPEAR
REASONABLE IF NOT A TAD WARM FOR SUN.  WILL LEAN ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR HIGHS.

A QUIET NIGHT SUNDAY FOR STAR WATCHING (ON THE OSCARS) AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAKES AN APPEARANCE.  LOWS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS
OF THE NORTH...WHILE UPPER 30S RETURN TO THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE - THE SEQUEL - HEADS OUR WAY FOR MONDAY.  CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY AND THICKEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  SHOWERS
WILL REACH CENTRAL PA BY AFTERNOON WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE MON
NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...
THE WET PATTERN PERSISTS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUE
AND WED.  CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL.  TEMPS ALONG THE PA/NY
BORDER WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S/LOWER 40S WHLE THE SOUTH WILL SEE A
SPREAD OF UPPER 30S/NEAR 50.  THU LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
NUDGES ITS WAY IN.

WORK ZONES OUT BY 3PM.

.CTP...NONE.

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1220 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2000

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-252300-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.  THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE WARM...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...ENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.END/RXR