Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
228 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2000

SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. THEN LOOK FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS IN ZONES THRU THIS
EVE ACROSS ALL OF THE FA GIVEN THE FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TOR
WATCH TO OUR SW. CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE THOUGH INDICATE LITTLE CHC OF STRONG TSTMS PRIOR TO THE MID
LVL S/WV EXITING NE OF OUR FA LATER TNGT. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT
THIS RUN THAT THE BEST QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE XTRM NW WHERE MORE
THAN AN INCH OF RNFL COULD FALL...WITH AMOUNTS SHARPLY LOWER AS ONE
WORKS SE INTO THE DOWNEAST AREA. TIMING OF THE RNFL WILL FACILITATE
THE NEED OF SPLITTING PD 1 FOR THE NW ZONE GROUP...OTHERWISE...WENT
SOMEWHAT ABV FWC GUIDANCE POPS TNGT.

STRONG DOWNGLIDE ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS LATE TNGT SHOULD GIVE
PARTIAL CLEARING TO MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...WHICH IS FASTER
THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SFC
WINDS SLACKENING OFF...WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE ACROSS ALL
AREAS...WITH WRLY COMP BL WINDS HOPEFULLY KEEPING FOG FROM BECOMING
DEEP AND MORE WIDESPREAD.

MON SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM GIVEN SW SFC WINDS
AND ETA 925 MB TEMPS OF +21 TO +22 DEG C ACROSS MOST OF THE FA.
ETA SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO FALL DURING THE AFT IN NE ME
LIKELY AS RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING LLVL WINDS...SO SEE NO REASON
WHY AREAS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND W OF THE MTNS SHOULD
NOT REACH HIGH TEMPS OF MID 80S ATTM.

INCREASING SSW GRAD FLOW COULD BRING SOME ATL STRATUS NWRD INTO THE
DOWNEAST COUNTIES LATE MON NGT PRIOR TO PERHAPS...MORE IMPORTANT
CONVECTION ON TUE AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWRD ACROSS THE
FA DURING THE LATE AFT AND EVE. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THIS MODEL
RUN LOOKS FAVORABLE TO UTILIZE MAX HEATING AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WILL GO SIG ABV FWC POPS THIS PD.

COASTAL WATERS: WILL ISSUE THE CWF THIS AFT WITH AN SCA FOR MAINLY
THIS EVE...AFTERWARDS...WE XPCT SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS
THEY VEER. ETA BL PROGS SHOW WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING BACK TO SCA
STRENGTH BY TUE AFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED: TDYS MEAN SCENARIO OF THE MED RANGE MODELS GIVES THE FA
PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TUE NGT AND FAIR/COOLER WX ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A S/WV ORGANIZING IN THE LOWER GREAT LKS/UPPER OH VALLEY
BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHWRS ON FRI. UNCERTAIN OF THE TIMING
OF THE THIS SYSTEM...SINCE TDYS MED RANGE MODELS ARE 24 HRS SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...TYPICAL OF AN UPPER FLOW REGIME FEATURING FAST
WRLYS ALF.

CCF: CAR BT 058/085 063/082 054 04712  333/432/00/11
     BGR BT 062/085 064/083 059 04512  333/432/00/12

.CAR...SCA.

VJN