Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2000

.SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS OF THE 12Z RUNS. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. A 5H RIDGE WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A PERSISTENT 5H TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS EXTENDED INTO THE GULF OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE GULF HAS PLACED A SLIGHT LID ON
THINGS IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. THIS RIDGING IS GAINING ENOUGH INFLUENCE
TO START DRYING OUT THE LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB. THIS CAN BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH CHOP OFF BETWEEN 0.25 AND
0.50 INCHES OF PWAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SEABREEZE HAS MANAGED
TO FIRE A STORM OR TWO EACH DAY...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN THIS. THE
MORNING KBRO SOUNDING LOOKS RATHER JUICY...WITH EVERYTHING IN PLACE IN
TERMS OF THERMODYNAMICS. PWAT IS UP TO 2 INCHES...CAPE IS OVER 5000
J/KG...AND THE LI IS OVER -9. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE TO TAP THIS ENERGY
STORE HOUSE...MUCH OF IT WILL GO UNUTILIZED.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS A
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS BEEN TIGHTENING UP EACH AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A HEAT LOW CYCLE
OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL APPROACH BREEZY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA
AS A RESULT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BACK TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND OF NO MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO.

.GUIDANCE DISCUSSION...
THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND. WITH THE
MAIN RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST...THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM
REALITY. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE WARRANTED. THE MODELS ARE
TRYING TO BRING HIGHER POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...AS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. BELIEVE THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF VERY WELL AT THIS POINT...SO WILL
NOT MENTION POPS BEYOND SUNDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BELOW 900
MB...WILL SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND...GENERALLY OF THE PARTLY CLOUDY
VARIETY. THESE WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS TIME GOES ON HOWEVER...AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

.EXTENDED...
MRF SHOWS SOME CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE KEY WORD HERE IS
RIDGING. THE INFAMOUS UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN DRAW CLOSER TO OUR CWA...PROVIDING
US WITH SUBSIDENCE ONCE AGAIN. THERE ARE A FEW TROPICAL WAVES IN THE
MODEL...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT NEAR OUR AREA.
OVERALL...THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ONCE AGAIN.

.MARINE OUTLOOK...
FEW PROBLEMS FOR BAY AND COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE CATEGORY. FOR THE BAY...EXPECT MODERATE FLOW TO PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CAUSING LOCALLY ROUGH BAY
WATERS. WILL WORD SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MONDAY TO REFLECT
THIS. OTHERWISE...NO PROBLEMS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FEET RANGE.
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

.KBRO FWC MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS...
BRO 076/095 076/096 02/06/06/20

.KBRO PRELIMINARY FORECAST NUMBERS...
BRO BB 075/095 076/096 076 00/10/00/00
MFE BB 076/099 076/100 077 00/10/00/00
RGC BB 075/104 075/105 076 00/10/00/00
SPI UU 077/088 078/089 078 00/10/00/00

SYNOPTIC...56(SW) / MESO...60(TS) / HMT...ABBOTT

.WFO BRO INTERNET ADDRESS...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.