Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
300 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2000

DESPITE SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER EASTERN PLAINS...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY ALONG FRONT RANGE...AVERAGING IN
THE LOWER 30S.  DEWPOINTS STILL HIGH EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON
LINE...LOWER TO MID 50S.  SHEAR PROFILE DECENT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOW CAPES OF AROUND 2500
JOULES.  CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FOOTHILLS...WILL PROBABLY BECOME
SEVERE EAST OF ABOVE MENTIONED LINE WHERE BEST SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE FOUND.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARIES.  WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS THOSE ZONES AND
MENTION SEVERE.  CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER OUT EAST LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

ON THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANCE IN WIND PROFILE WITH LOW LEVEL EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WESTERLY ALOFT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO
2000 JOULES DURING AFTERNOON.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRST DEVELOP
OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EASTWARD.
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY CONVECTION.  EASTERN PLAINS IN DAY TWO
SEVERE...CANNOT RULE AGAINST THIS THINKING.  STILL A BIT EARLY TO
MENTION SEVERE IN ZONES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...MOIST SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER
EASTERN PLAINS...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  COULD BE ANOTHER FAIRLY
ACTIVE DAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARMING ALOFT.
THIS CAP MAY DELAY STORM DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS ALOFT THROUGH PERIOD SUFFICIENT TO KEEP STORMS MOVING...SO NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING ALONG FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS...WARMING THE AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING MONSOON-TYPE
MOISTURE.  HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL MOIST SURGES TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  EXPECT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS.  D-L

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030-032>050-192200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
138 PM MDT WED JULY 19 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
AFTER 4 PM.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF A GREELEY TO DENVER LINE
AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  WITH A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE ALOFT A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.

RPK