Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
243 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2000

LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE TN
VLY THRU 15Z THIS MORNING.  STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
NEAR FT. PAYNE TO NEAR COLUMBUS MS.  SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT THIS MORNING AND
GENERALLY BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  HIEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AND WILL ADJUST THE POPS
JUST BEFORE RELEASE TIME BASED ON CURRENT RADAR.

FRONT MAY PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TODAY BUT WILL GENERALLY WASH
OUT NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME GRADUAL DRYING
TAKING PLACE LATER TONIGHT.  NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY GETTING
ORGANIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THIS RUN OF THE MODELS HAS
THIS SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD.  IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WITH GULF WIDE OPEN WILL BRING
POPS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS.  FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SAY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR
ALL SECTIONS.

LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
CBENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL HAVE NUMEROUS GROUPINGS AND USE A BLEND OF
THE FAN/FWC DATA.

HSV 53/45/63 505   BHM 65/50/67 305   MGM 71/52/71 204

.BHM...NONE.