Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2000

SFC LOW OVER WY THIS AFTN WI ELY/SELY WINDS OVER ND. DWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM -2 TO -7. A
FEW TSTMS IN CNTRL ND ATTM BUT ECHO TOPS 25-30KFT. CONVECTIVE TEMP
WITH ENOUGHT PUSH TO BREAK INVERSIONS ON THE BIS SOUNDING WAS MID
80S. BIS IS IN THE LOWER 80S ATTM UNDER LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. MORE
ACTIVE REGION IS IN CNTRL MT WHERE CLEARING OVER ERN HALF OF MT
WHERE SVR WATCH IN EFFECT. WRN NE ALSO MOST UNSTABLE WI CLEARING
AHEAD OF TSTM LINE. WOULD EXPECT WRN ND TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS
EVE PROGRESSES AND CLEAR SLOT INVADES FROM THE SW. MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS BRING CAPES TO OVER 1700 AT GGW...2200 AT BIS...AND 2100
AT ABR. EXPECT WATCH SOMETIME THIS EVE. +14C H7 CAP TO MOVE INTO
SWRN AND S CNTRL ND DURING THE EVE...AND THINK BETTER PCPN CHC IS IN
NRN CWA TONIGHT.

SFC LOW MOVES INTO DAKS LATE TON AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER CNTRL ND
TUE AFTN WI CAP BREAKING DOWN. FCST CAPES INDICATE GOOD TSTM INSTABILITY
THROUGH TUE AND INTO WED. SFC BOUNDARY TUE AND UPPER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON TUE NT AND WED WL KEEP TSTMS IN THE FCST.

IN THE EXTENDED...STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED THROUGH SAT. WARM AND
UNSTABLE WED NT THROUGH FRI WI SWLY FLOW AT H5 AND SFC LOWS IN
VCNTY. ON SAT...COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND H5 ENERGY IN CYCLONIC FLOW
TO BRING CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

.BIS...NONE.
VINING