Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

SHWR/TSRA ACVTY CONTG E FM WRN NY INTO THE OH VLLY. THE BULK OF THE
CNVTN CONTS TO DVLP TO THE S AND E IN OH TWD WV AND WRN PA. SOME
SCTD ACVTY HEADING E TWD CNTRL NY. IN ADDTN...SOME ISLD ACVTY FIRING
OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOES.
THE ACVTY IN WRN NY WAS FORMING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPRCHING UPR LVL
WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC TROF. THIS FEATURE WILL CONT TO WORK E AND
AMPLFY WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO A MAJOR CUT OFF LO FORMG AT
MID-UPR LVLS OVR PA BY SAT EVE. SHWR AND TSRA WILL MOV INTO THE
REGION THE REST OF THE AFTRN AND EVE. IT MAY WIND DOWN A BIT LATER
IN THE EVENING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...COUNTERING THE USUAL DIURNAL
DECREASE IN CONVTN WILL BE THE HGHT FALLS AND MIDLVL LIFTG ASSCTD
WITH THE AMPLFING UPR LVL LO. THUS...ACVTY MAY FLARE UP ACRS REGION
AGAIN OVRNGT. WILL GO LIKELY POPS SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO
CELLS THIS EVE CUD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS...NOT ENUF
FOR AN FFA. WILL HNDL IN THE ESF THAT WILL BE WRITTEN MAINLY FOR THE
POTENTIAL HVY RAIN EVENT ON SAT INTO SAT NGT.

NOW ON TO SAT-SAT NGT. UPR LVL LO CLOSES OFF OVR PA. THE EFFECT OF
THIS WILL BE TO BACK THE LL FLO TO THE SE THRU THE TROPOSPHERE . A
N-S ORIENTED SERLY LLJ DVLPS AT 850 MB WHICH TOPS 40 KTS ON SOME
MODELS. THE WINDS AT THE LL/S WILL BE STRGR THAN THE WINDS AT MID
LVLS...A KEY FACTOR IN DVLPG SLOW-MOVING MTN-HUGGING TSRA WHICH WILL
BE EMBEDDED IN A LARGER AREA OF SHWRS. WHERE EVER THE LLJ SETS UP
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE STRGEST LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DESTAB. THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE FOCUSED INTO A HIGHLY
DVRGT ENVRNMENT ON THE E AND N SIDE OF THE DVLPG UPR LVL LO. ALL
MODELS SHOW QPF MAXES FM 2-3 INCHES. MODEL DIFF/S SHOW UP IN THE
POSITIONING OF THE UPR LVL LO WITH THE AVN THE FARTHEST S. THE
ETA/MESO-ETA IS FARTHEST N. THE NGM IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING TWD THE NGM SOLTN USING THE AWIPS D_PROG_DT FEATURE.
NGM MIGHT HAVE THE BEST SOLTN FOR THE MASS FIELDS. WITH THE AVN
FARTHEST S...HEAVIEST PRECIP IS S OF CWA. FOR NOW...BASED ON TRENDS
WILL GO WITH THE FARTHER N SOLTN/S. THE NGM NAILS NE PA HARD WITH THE
ETA HITTING OUR SERN ZONES THE HARDEST WITH NR 3 INCHES AMNTS. OUR
MM5 RUN WAS VERY SIMILIAR TO THE NGM WITH THE HEAVIEST IN NC PA WITH
AMNTS OVR 5 INCHES! THIS IS PROBABLY OVRDONE AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE
OF A BASIN AVE.

BASIN AVE QPF PROBABLY WILL RUN ARND 2 INCHES OVR A WIDE AREA BY SUN
AM. THIS IN ITSELF WON/T BE ENUF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING. I
AM MORE CONCERNED ABT THE LOCALLY HIGHER AMNTS THAT LIKELY WILL FALL
OVR SOME OF OUR HILLY TERRAIN. THINK LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY SOMEWHERE IN MY CWA SAT-SAT NGT WITH ISOLD AMNTS UP TO 4
OR 5 INCHES PSBL. TOO ERLY FOR A WATCH SINCE IT CUD SET UP ANYWHERE
IN MY CWA SO WILL OPT FOR AN ESF TO COVER POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPR
LVL LO GETS SHEARED OUT. TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL
THOUGH. IT IS INTERESTING TO POINT OUT THAT AT BGM THIS JULY/S AVE 8
TEMP SO FAR IS 1.3 DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD FOR THE COLDEST JULY
WHICH WAS 65.5 DEGREES IN JULY 1971. THE MRF SHOWS YET ANTHR CUT OFF
LO DROPPING INTO THE NERN US BY DAY 10!

.BGM...NONE.

NICOSIA