Tornado Warning 6, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

MOST PRESSING ISSUE THIS FCST PERIOD IS NEXT 12-18 HRS...AND
WHETHER/HOW MUCH SVR TSTM ACTVTY WILL OCCUR. CNVTN APCHG NWRN PTN OF
CWFA ATTM IS DVLPG IN LOLVL CNVERGENCE ZONE INVOF BLUE RIDGE. THINK
THIS ACTVTY IS DIURNALLY ENHANCED...AND WILL PRBLY DIE OUT BY ERY
EVE. POTENT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD THROUGH GRT LKS RGN HAS INITIATED
WIDESPREAD TSTMS OH INTO WRN PA AND INDIANA. XPC SQLN TO DVLP NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS...AND SWEEP SEWD ACRS RGN DURG MID EVE/ERY SAT MRNG
TIME FRAME. ALTHO AMS NOT EXTRMLY UNSTBL...THINK ENOUGH INSTBY AVBL
FOR SQLN TO REMAIN FAIRLY POTENT/PSBLY SVR AS IT MOVES ACRS
CWFA...EVEN INTO THE ERY MRNG HRS. HAVE ISSUED SVR WX OTLK
ACCORDINGLY.

FOR THE SECOND THRU 4TH PDS...TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON PLACEMENT...
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN. XPC SOME SHWR/TSTM ACTVTY TO
BE CONTG ERN AREAS SAT MRNG...BUT THAT SHOULD SWEEP OFFSHORE B4 NOON
AND LEAVE VRBLY CLDY CONDITIONS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOLVL CNVERGENCE
AND INSTBY FOR SCT TSTMS TO DVLP DURG THE AFTN...WITH COVERAGE
DEPENDENT UPON AMT OF INSTBY/HEATING. HAVE GONE WITH 40 POP
EVERYWHERE. SPC HAS SLGT RISK TMRW...WHICH LOOKS RSNBL IF THERE'S
ENOUGH HEATING. IF IT'S CLDY...THEN THINK PCPN WILL BE SCT AT BEST
AND SVR THREAT SHOULD DCRS SGFNTLY.

AFTER SCT EVNG TSTMS SAT NGT...PTLY CLDY SKIES OVERNGT AND INTO SUN.
STILL CHANCE FOR SCT DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS SUN AFTN/EVNG...WITH
LESS COVERAGE THAN SAT.

PERSISTENCE SHOULD WORK WELL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT MAX TEMPS
COULD BE A CRAPSHOOT DEPENDING UPON SOLAR INSOLATION. HAVE GONE
ABOUT 5 DEG BLO CLIMO FOR HIGHS.

XTNDD...ONCE UPR LOW/SHEAR AXIS DEPART...BERMUDA HIGH TAKES HOLD FOR
A COUPLE DAYS. SO MON-WED SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH
TEMPS GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS...PERHAPS A LTL HIGHER BY WED.

MARINE...SOMEWHAT DETERIORATING BOATING CONDS SAT INTO SUN...SPCLY
NRN CSTL WTRS. WINDS/SEAS MAY APCH SCA CRITERIA SAT NGT/SUN...BUT
WON'T BITE ON OVERDONE AVN MDL YET.

.AKQ...NONE.

SAMMLER

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-150600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE DEVELOPED IN OHIO AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AS A
SQUALL LINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO TONIGHT. THE SQUALL
LINE SHOULD ENTER THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT BY MID EVENING...AND REACH
THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE SQUALL
LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND NORTH
OF A CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA TO WALLOPS ISLAND VIRGINIA LINE.

PERSONS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...THE LOWER MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS
SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SHOULD THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MATERIALIZE.

SAMMLER