Tornado Warning 4, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EST SAT JAN 23 1999

CURRENTLY...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND
QUICKLY MOVING NWD IN CWA BUT HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING QUICKLY THUS
FAR. ONLY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN EC FL HAS BEEN OVER COASTAL WATERS
WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY. TEMPS HAVE
REACHED THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT-TERM...LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING THROUGH N FL/ERN GULF HAS
BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER GULF WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
INCREASING OVER PAST HOUR. LINE SHOULD REACH EXTREME NRN SECTIONS OF
CWA AROUND 00Z THIS EVE AND SRN COUNTIES AROUND DAWN SUNDAY. DECENT
HELICITY VALUES AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER AREA
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...THEN THE THREAT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD DAWN AS WINDS BECOME MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND JET LIFTS OUT. CLOUD COVER AND SOLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD MINS IN MID/UPPER 60S. WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON RADAR CELLS REST OF AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS
COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OUT AHEAD OF THE
LINE.

LONG-TERM...AXIS OF STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PENINSULA AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD COMPACT
VORT MAX INTACT...PRODUCING A BAND OF IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
VELOCITIES. EXPECT SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS TO
FOLLOW SQUALL LINE AND MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CWA NEAR DAYBREAK INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET MAX
LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS...AND FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNI-DIRECTIONAL...DO NOT EXPECT A SEVERE WX THREAT SUNDAY.
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NW CWA BY MID-DAY...AND SE CWA BY SUNSET.
CLEARING SHOULD OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY AND
SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
MINIMAL...AS POLAR JET REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND ONLY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
50S ALL AREAS BY MON MORNING. DRY WX EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS
SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO N/NE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODIFY.

MARINE...SCA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS LESSENING
SUNDAY. SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS SUNDAY WILL REQUIRE SCEC...ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE.

DAB EB 066/071 051/072 056 65830
MCO EB 066/073 053/074 056 65740
MLB TB 068/074 055/074 061 65750

.MLB...SCA ECFL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

GLITTO/SPRATT

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-232359-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1145 AM EST SAT JAN 23 1999

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...A
FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...

...RIP CURRENT THREAT MUCH GREATER THAN NORMAL TODAY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LINE
WILL SLOW TONIGHT AND DROP INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING
AND TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES LIKELY
IN MANY AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO STORMS.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH AND GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY MAKING BOATING HAZARDOUS. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SUSTAIN A
NORTHWARD-FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT AND WILL PRODUCT RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.

MARINE INTERESTS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT.

ANOTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING OF THE POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BORZILLERI/SPRATT

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-232359-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1145 AM EST SAT JAN 23 1999

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...A
FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...

...RIP CURRENT THREAT MUCH GREATER THAN NORMAL TODAY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LINE
WILL SLOW TONIGHT AND DROP INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING
AND TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES LIKELY
IN MANY AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO STORMS.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH AND GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AREA LAKES WILL BECOME CHOPPY MAKING BOATING HAZARDOUS. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SUSTAIN A
NORTHWARD-FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT AND WILL PRODUCT RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.

MARINE INTERESTS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT.

ANOTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING OF THE POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BORZILLERI/SPRATT

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-240400-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
509 PM EST SAT JAN 23 1999

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL REACH TO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
OCCUR...WITH BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES LIKELY IN MANY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP
INFORMED OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. BE SURE TO ACTIVATE THE TONE
ALERT ON YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO BEFORE RETIRING FOR THE EVENING.

MARINE INTERESTS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

GLITTO