Tornado Warning 40, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999

...MODEL PERFORMANCE...SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG ALL MODELS
FOR FORECAST PERIOD. NGM SHOWING USUAL BIASES. ETA A BIT ON THE SLOW
SIDE...AND PCPN FIELDS LOOK A BIT OVERDONE. AVN LOOKS GOOD FOR TIMING
BUT NOT SO HOT ON PLACEMENT OF LOW. GOING WITH ETA FOR THE MOST PART AS
IT IS THE LEAST WORST AS FAR AS I CAN TELL. FAST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY...CONTINUALLY SETTING UP LEE SIDE TROF TO CONTEND
WITH.

TONIGHT...H8 TROF PROGGED FROM IML-ANW LINE BY 00Z. THEN 06Z-12Z AS LOW
SPINS UP OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE
WITH ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...SHUNTING BULK OF MOISTURE TO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONES. LOOKING FAIRLY DRY FOR OUR AREA WITH L & V
WIND.

WEDNESDAY/NIGHT...ETA/AVN HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE
LOW AT H8. ETA PUTS IT FAR SOUTH...ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
CENTRAL NEB. AVN PUTS IT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS...NO MOISTURE FOR NEB
UNTIL 00Z THURDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND. ETA HAS IT RAINING AT LBF BY 00Z
THURS. PRETTY GOOD JET ENTERING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT H2 PUSHES
EVERYTHING RAPIDLY EAST OF US BY 12Z THURSDAY. AVN SLOWER...KEEPS H7
OMEGA SOUTH OF US...DOESNT GET THINGS GOING UNTIL 06Z THURS. IT LOOKS
LIKE POPS OF SOME SORT WILL BE NEEDED WED NIGHT.

THURS...MAYBE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS/STRATUS/MAYBE EVEN FOG IN THE
MORNING.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND AS WE LOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
WAY OF GOOD DIVERGENCE. GOOD DRYING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED...FRI/SAT/4TH OF JULY...MRF AS USUAL TRYING TO BUILD HUGE RIDGE
OVER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HAVE BEEN BURNED ON THIS SCENARIO SEVERAL
TIME IN PAST MONTH.  TEND TO THINK RIDGE (IF IT BUILDS) WILL BE FARTHER
EAST AS LOW DIGS INTO CALIFORNIA COAST. WILL GO SOMEWHAT BELOW FMR/FAN
TEMPS FOR HIGHS. AS FOR POPS...CHN OF LATE AFT TSRA FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.LBF...NONE.

SLM

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-292045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF NEBRASKA...
HOWEVER...SEVERE STORMS COULD REACH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BY LATE EVENING...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH STORMS WEAKENING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

SURROUNDING THIS AREA...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

BOWMAN

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-292045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF NEBRASKA...
HOWEVER...SEVERE STORMS COULD REACH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BY LATE EVENING...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH STORMS WEAKENING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

SURROUNDING THIS AREA...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

BOWMAN