Tornado Warning 28, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
220 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 1999

SFC ANAL SHOWS CLFD FRONT ACROSS WRN MO/ERN KS WITH MAIN SFC LOW
OVER WEST CENTRAL IA.  TSRA FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN NWRN MO AS
AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED DUE TO SOME CLRG.  NICE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALSO NOTED THIS AREA WITH WW CURRENTLY POSTED JUST WEST
OF CWA.  ETA/NGM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOVING SFC LOW AND ASSOC
CLD FRONT ACROSS CEN IL INTO IND/MI IN THE NEXT 24 HRS.  TSRA LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE AS VORT MAX SPINS
ACROSS NRN IL WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF WW POSTED FOR CEN IL
LATER THIS AFTN OR EVE AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 AND DWPTS REACH THE
UPR 60S TO NR 70 AS SQUALL LINE DVLPS AND MOVES EAST.

THE ONLY QUESTION TNGT IS WHEN WILL THE PCPN SHUT OFF. NICE NVA AND
DRYING MOVES INTO IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER 06Z WITH
RIDGING IN THE UPR LVLS MOVING IN FOR WED AND THUR. SO PCPN LOOKS
LIKE A ONE SHOT DEAL.  SO WILL CONT PREVIOUS CLRG TRENDS FROM
PREVIOUS ZONES.

GUID TEMPS SIMILIAR FOR THE OVRNGT HOURS BUT FAN COOLER TMRW.
PREFER THE WARMER FWC NUMBERS FOR WED HIGHS AS COOLEST AIR STAYS TO
THE NORTH OF IL.

OZFILX TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION.

SPI TB 061/080 058/081 061 22720
PIA TB 060/079 057/080 060 22720
DEC TB 061/079 057/081 060 22620
CMI TB 061/079 058/081 061 22620
MTO TB 061/078 058/081 061 22620
LWV TB 062/079 059/082 062 22620

KETCHAM

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-021200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 1999

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST INTO
ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A FEW OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS...
ROUGHLY WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO PEORIA LINE...BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM
WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST SEEING THE THRREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

KETCHAM