Tornado Warning 12, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999

FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE CHC FOR TSTMS AND TEMPS.

RUNNING A BIT LATE DUE TO ONGOING SVR WX.  RECURRING TSTMS OVER THE
NRN PTNS OF THE CWA TODAY IN AREA OF UNDER AREA OF STG UPPER LVL
DIFFLUENCE.  WK RIPPLES IN NW FLOW ALOFT HELPING SET OFF THE
CONVECTION ERLYR THS MRNG.  ANOTHER WK S/W ANLYZD OVR WYO THIS MRNG
APPRS TO BE HELPING FIRE NEXT ROUND OF STRMS OVR ERN COLO/NWRN KS
TAFTN.  LOW LVL EAST WEST BNDRY ALSO HELPING TO FOCUS THE STORMS
ACRSS THE CNTRL PTN OF THE CWA.

MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YDA IN KEEPING WNW/ESE ORIENTED
UPPR LVL JET FRM PAC NW INTO THE CENT PLAINS INTO THU AND THEN FCST
UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND THE CORE OF THE MAX WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME.  THIS FCST WILL BE BASED
SOMEWHAT ON PERSISTANCE FROM PREV PACKAGE.  AS H5 S/W ROLLS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS TNGT. WE SHOULD SEE SFC LOW GET SHUNTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN WITH SFC FLOW BECMG NERLY AGAIN TNGT.  THIS AND
MOIST GROUND FROM WHERE THE RAINS FALL SHOULD HELP REGENERATE
SOME MORE LOW CLDNSS AND FOG TNGT.  WILL ADD FOG TO NRN 2/3DS OF THE
CWA TNGT.  ON THU WILL KEEP A MENTION OF MRNG TSTMS IN ALL BUT SRN
PTNS OF CWA AGAIN AS ANOTHER IN SERIES OF WK RIPPLES ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH.

WILL CONT TREND OF WARMING THINGS UP A BIT ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER LVL JET.

NOT MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT WILL NOT BUY INTO
THE FMR/S IDEA OF WARMING TEMPS UP TO AOA 100 THIS WEEKEND. WITH MOST
OF THE CWA RECEIVING PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...THINK IT WILL
BE HARD TO HEAT THINGS UP TOO MUCH.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE SWRN
PTNS OF THE CWA WHERE IT HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING INTO THE 90S MORE FREQUENTLY OF LATE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 065/084 065/091 068 423
GCK 063/083 064/092 066 423
EHA 064/090 066/097 067 212
LBL 065/085 065/095 067 212
HYS 062/083 064/088 066 423
P28 068/086 070/095 073 323

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-300600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1140 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOIST AIR WAS MOVING BACK NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING...TO THE EAST OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  AT THE SAME TIME...COOLER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

WIND SHEAR PATTERNS IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE AREA SOUTH OF A SYRACUSE...GARDEN CITY...DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE
LODGE LINE WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES
AND WARNINGS ON THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER SIRTUATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...YOU MAY VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

GERARD