Tornado Warning 3, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 1999

SFC SW FLO CRANKING UP ATTM. FLO ALOFT ALREADY THERE PER VWP FM KCCX
AND KBUF. BEST DWPTS STILL IN OH...BUT ADVECTING NICELY ALOFT AND AT
SFC. MINI ECHOES ALREADY POPPED ALONG GOOD WAA BOUNDARY IN OUR NRN
FA. BUT THAT ACTIVITY IS RACING EAST WITH LLJ - >50KTS ON SPEED
THAT KIND OF CELL MOVEMENT DOESNT TAKE TOO MUCH MIXING TO PRODUCE
DAMAGE OUT OF A THUNDERSTORM.

THE OL SUMMER/DROUGHT OF 99 NO-RAIN SHAFT OF STATE COLLEGE APPEARS
AGAIN ON MODEL QPF PRODUCTS. THIS MAY BE MDLS PICKING UP ON WEAKER
INSTAB OV MTNS. ANYWAY...THE TREND IN MOST RECENT MDL RUNS IS TO PUT
LOWER POPS/QPF INTO CENTL MTNS AND LWR SUSQ.  MOSTLY CONSISTENT WITH
THINKING ATTM...BUT STILL BELIEVE THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A
SQULL LINE TO FORM AND DROP SEWD INTO MTNS...WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. MOST/ALL SVR ACTIVITY SHUD BE CONTAINED TO N&W OF IPT-UNV-AOO
LINE TONIGHT.  LATEST RUC POINTING TO START UP CONVECTION BY 21Z IN
NW PA...CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING.  POPS TONIGHT TO BE CAT IN
WRN ZNS/LIKELY IN CENTL&MID SUSQ AND CHC IN SE (MAINLY LATE).

AS THE SQUALL LINE WEAKENS...IT WL MOST LIKELY SPIT INTO TWO AREAS
OF CNVCTN - ONE DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTH THROUGH THE LAURELS (FEEDING
OFF THE TERRIFIC THTE ADV AND LLJ FM SW)...AND ONE THAT GOES WITH
BEST WAA/UPR SUPPORT TWD ELM/BGM.  THE FNT DOES LOOK TO HANG UP AS
IT MOVES THRU OUR AREA...BUT REAL FNT AND NNW FLO DOES NOT MAKE IT
THRU FA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THEREFORE CHC POPS WL REMAIN IN FAR SRN
ZNS...INCL THE LWR SUSQ...IN EARLY SAT PD. DRYING/MO SUN FOR REST OF
FA ON SAT AND COOLER/FAIR FOR SUN.

XTNDD: FRIENDLY HIGH PRES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK. SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THRU XTNDD PD...AND CHC WORDING MAKES RETURN ON TUES FOR
EVERYONE AND WED AS WELL FOR ERN ZNS AS MRF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG FNT
THAT HANGS UP IN SE US.  THE WAVE AND WAA RIDES THE RETURN FLOW OF
THE SFC HI AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

.CTP...NONE.

DANGELO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-092200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 1999

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WARM...HUMID AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST AS IT DOES SO...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY WARM...
HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE...COMBINED WITH FAST WINDS ALOFT WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THIS
EVENING IS THAT A LONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND DROP
TO THE SOUTHEAST...INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND NIGHT TIME HOURS. A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG LINE OF
STORMS...AND THOSE ADVANCE STORM CELLS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE TORNADOES.

AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...A COMMERCIAL RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.END/DANGELO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-092200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 1999

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WARM...HUMID AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST AS IT DOES SO...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY WARM...
HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE...COMBINED WITH FAST WINDS ALOFT WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THIS
EVENING IS THAT A LONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND DROP
TO THE SOUTHEAST...INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND NIGHT TIME HOURS. A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG LINE OF
STORMS...AND THOSE ADVANCE STORM CELLS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE TORNADOES.

AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...A COMMERCIAL RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.END/DANGELO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-100400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 1999

...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

WARM...HUMID AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO POP UP IN THE UNSTABLE
AIR. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL
TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM...HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE AND THE FAST WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO COME OUT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THIS EVENING IS THAT A LONG LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST...INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHT. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FORMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES. AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...A COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.END/DANGELO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-100400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 1999

...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

WARM...HUMID AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO POP UP IN THE UNSTABLE
AIR. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL
TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM...HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE AND THE FAST WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO COME OUT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THIS EVENING IS THAT A LONG LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST...INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHT. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FORMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES. AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...A COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.END/DANGELO