Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 11, 1998, 2:27 PM MST for Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 93 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 11, 1998, 2:27 PM MST (21:27 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 11, 1998, 4:00 PM MST
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Santa Cruz County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 741 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -174 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1687 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 42 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 21 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 112129 FFWTUS AZC023-112300- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 227 PM MST TUE AUG 11 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 400 PM MST * AT 225 PM... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF PATAGONIA AND OVER THE PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR IN THIS AREA. FLOODING OF WASHES FLOWING OUT OF THE NORTH END OF THE PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 11, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 11, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 57 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 930 AM MST TUE AUG 11 1998 SYNOPSIS...STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DISCUSSION...WILL UP POPS AFTER BLASTUP...SEEMS TO BE A GOOD DAY FOR STORMS AS MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND WE WILL GET PLENTY OF HEATING. PHX SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOCUS POINT FOR STORMS MAY BE ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED INTO STATE FROM COMPLEX IN MEX. THIS HAS PUSHED AF FAR NORTH AS TUS AND EXPECT IT STALL IN THIS AREA. IF IT GOES BIG TODAY WILL DROP POPS FOR WED FIGURING IT WILL TAKE A DAY OR SO TO OVERCOME COOLING FROM TODAYS STORMS. WINDS ALOFT ARE SO WEEK AND LOW LVL MSTR SO ABUNDANT WILL PROBABLY DO FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTN ALSO. NEED TO ANALYZE THIS A LITTLE MORE TO DETERMINE HIGHER RISK AREA. TUS 112. HOLBROOK .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 11, 12:14 PM MST, 2 hours 13 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-110800-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST TUE AUG 11 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 60 20 40 20 W 10
GRAHAM 30 10 15 10 W 10
GREENLEE 50 10 20 15 W 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 70 25 50 30 W 10
TOHONO OODHAM 60 20 40 25 NW 10
WESTERN PIMA 60 20 40 20 NW 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 60 20 40 25 NW 10
SANTA CRUZ 80 25 60 35 W 10
SYNOPSIS...TUCSON AND PHOENIX SOUNDINGS MORE MOIST TODAY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS MEXICAN STORMS ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER WILL
ACT AS FOCUSING MECHANISM. STORMS SHOULD PROPOGATE INTO DESERTS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/VPHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2:56 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 64 min |
| Aug 11, 4:27 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 93 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.