Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT MON MAY 18 1998

...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. COLD FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AS WELL.
DRIER AIR HAS TEMPORARILY MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ROCKET INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK AGAIN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AGAIN AFTER SUNSET WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 EAST.

WENT WITH COMPROMISE ON ETA/AVN SOLNS THIS FORECAST AS FEEL ETA IS
TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND THE AVN IS TOO FAR NORTH. ALSO FEEL ETA COOLS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
TOO QUICK JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH FEEL LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION COULD INITIATE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT
WHICH IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN ETA...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR
NORTH AS AVN SOLN. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FEELING CONVECTION FAR WEST WILL NOT HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT
TO MAKE NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS. WILL FIRST INTRODUCE POPS...HIGHER
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER...TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS POSSIBLE MCS GETS GOING TO THE NORTH OF FRONT AND MOVES
EAST/SOUTHEAST IN DIFFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN. FEEL BEST THREAT OF
CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTH OF CWA...BUT WILL DECREASE POPS NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA AS CONVECTION MAY CLIP NORTHEAST DURING
THE NIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT CAP TO HOLD OVER THE
EASTCENTRAL.

FEEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVN FOR HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OVER FWC GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DONT SEE AS WARM A TEMPS IN THE WESTERN
CWA AS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AND MORE OF A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY.

.TOP...NONE.

SW