Tornado Warning 4, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
940 AM EST SUN FEB 22 1998

FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION OVR THE EXTRM WRN PTNS OF OUR FL CWA ATTM
AND PROPAGATING RPDLY NNE. MRNG SOUNDING AT JAX INDICATE LLVL DIR
SHEAR WITH 20KT ELY FLO AT 1000MB THEN BCMG SWLY ARND 25KT ABV 950MB.
TOR WATCH OVR WRN FL CTYS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED ANOTHER ONE LTR
THIS AFTN TO ITS EAST AS FAVORABLE U/L DYNAMICS SHIFT ACROSS AREA.
HAVE UPDATED FL ZONE PACKAGE TO INCLUDE TOR WATCH ALSO AND BUMPED POPS
UP A NOTCH...OTRW CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

MOBBS

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-222100-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL...UPDATE...
1154 AM EST SUN FEB 22 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR...ALACHUA
...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...HAMILTON...MARION
...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...UNION COUNTIES.
ALSO...FOR ECHOLS...CLINCH...WARE...PIERCE...BRANTLEY...GLYNN...
CHARLTON AND CAMDEN COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2PM FOR HAMILTON...SUWANNEE
AND GILCHRIST COUNTIES...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES EARLY THIS EVENING. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BE
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED BAND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE AS IT
TRACKS EAST OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STORM WILL
AVERAGE FROM ONE TO ONE AND HALF INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES.

SINCE THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL
ONLY SERVE TO COMPLICATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. INTERESTS IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER TAKING PRECAUTIONS FOR THE PROTECTION
OF PROPERTY. GENERALLY...IF YOU EXPERIENCED FLOODING PROBLEMS
DURING LAST MONDAY'S STORM IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO ASSUME FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ONCE AGAIN.

RIVER FLOODING...FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA
RIVERS. NUMEROUS RIVERS IN THE AREA CONTINUE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
DETAILS ON THESE RIVERS ARE CONTAINED IN RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS.

RESIDENTS AND INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE
URGED TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO...TV...CABLE TELEVISION OR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM.
MORE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS THE WEATHER SITUATION EVOLVES.

ALONG THE COAST...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING BY
MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.UNF.EDU/NWS/JAX/

RAM