Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 AM EST WED FEB 4 1998

CAE/FFC: WINDY MOUNTAINS TODAY. BREEZY ELSEWHERE. FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
RAH: WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING MOUNTAINS...WINDY ELSEWHERE.
     FLOOD WATCH TODAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT
     MOUNTAINS.

UPPER LOW TO LIFT NE DURING THIS PACKAGE...WHILE ANOTHER LOW ENTERS
CENTRAL PLAINS AT END OF PACKAGE. SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG CAROLINA
COAST DAY ONE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER AREA THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING N TOWARD I-20 AT 48 HOURS. STRONG
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE ALONG BLUE RIDGE TODAY. AS WINDS BACK
UPSLOPE STARTS W SIDE OF MOUNTAINS 18 HOURS. BY 36 HOURS WINDS BACK
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT UPSTATE SC...BUT DECREASING
THU. WITH MOST LIFT/MOISTURE EASTERN CAROLINAS DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
QPF TODAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR HIGH POPS. GROUND WET
ENOUGH FOR PROBLEMS EVEN WITH HALF INCH AMOUNTS. PARTIAL THICKNESS
FROM ETA/NGM KEEP CRITCAL VALUES ON TN SIDE OF MOUNTAINS...BUT
BRING MARGINAL VALUES E ACROSS MOUNTAINS DAY TWO. MINOR COOLING NC
MOUNTAINS DAY ONE TO JUST BELOW 0 C...THEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
DAY TWO TO -4 C. BEST LOW LEVEL WINDS IN NC TODAY...WEAKENING AND
MOVING NE BY THIS EVENING.

AVL   39/34/38   +96
CLT   45/38/44   +96
GSP   43/36/48   +94

JAT

SCZ001>014-019-041600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
517 AM EST WED FEB 4 1997

...ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND WIND FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WIND
SINCE MONDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ONCE
AGAIN.

LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONVERT TO A STEADY MODERATE RAIN BY
LATE MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE AREA. BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPSTATE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MANY STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE UPSTATE APPROACHED BANKFULL ON
TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY DO SO AGAIN TODAY EVEN THOUGH THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN SEEN YESTERDAY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
GROUND IS SIMPLY SATURATED AND CANNOT HOLD ANY ADDITONAL
WATER...CAUSING HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL RUNOFF INTO STREAMS...CREEKS AND
RIVERS. THE THREAT OF WATER CROSSING ROADWAYS IN LOW LYING AREAS
AND IN RESPONSE TO OVERFLOWING DRAINAGE CULVERTS WILL ALSO BE
HEIGHTENED TODAY.

HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BE PART OF OUR WEATHER PICTURE FOR A SECOND
CONSECUTIVE DAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW DRAWS CLOSER...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN...WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

MANY TREES WITH WEAK ROOT SYSTEMS WERE FELLED ACROSS THE UPSTATE
ON TUESDAY BECAUSE OF SOGGY SOIL AND A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT IS
EXPECTED.

MOTORISTS ACROSS THE UPSTATE SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER
IN ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER
STANDING IN ROADS. STOP...TURN AROUND AND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE. ONE
CAN NEVER BE SURE HOW MUCH WATER IS ACTUALLY COVERING THE ROAD
SURFACE. ALSO BE ALERT FOR FALLING TREES OR FOR DOWNED POWER LINES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION OR
CABLE TELEVISION FOR LATER STATEMENTS ON THIS MAJOR SOUTHEAST STORM.

BURRUS