Tornado Warning 1, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT (245 PM CDT) TUE APR 14 1998

...THUNDERSTORMS FIRST PD OVER SE CWA...THEN TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE
   OUT PDS MAIN CONCERN THIS PACKAGE...

TRAIN OF H7-H5 S/WS CONTINUE THEIR ONSLAUGHT ON CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
NEXT WAVE OVER SW COLORADO EJECTING OUT INTO KS THIS EVENING. SFC LO
OVER KS ZNS 29/15 HELPING TO DRAG COLD AIR BOUNDARY OVER NE COLORADO
INTO EXTREME NW CWA ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS. BEST DIURNAL HEATING SE
OF SFC LO WITH SFC BOUNDARY/DRY LINE DRAPED OVER SERN FA. MODELS
AGAIN VERY DIVERSE AT 12-36 HRS...BUT LIKE THE IN-BETWEEN AVN THIS
GO ROUND WITH CURRENT POSISTIONS OF SFC LO AND SW COLORADO S/W TRACK
WITH CURRENT THERMAL WIND FIELDS AND WSW-ENE 130-150KT JET FIELD
ORIENTED OVER SRN CONUS.

FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET OF SCT STRONG TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF SFC
FRONT OVER EXTREME SE FA AS 22 UNIT H5 S/W APPROACHES. A COMBINATION
OF HEATING... 8 DEG C H7/H5 LAPSE RATES...AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONGE SFC FRONT TO ENHANCE FORCING OVER SE CWA. CAPES AROUND 500
J/KG AND LI RANGE OF -2 TO -4 TO SE OF A MCCOOK NE-OAKLEY KS-TRIBUNE
KS LINE. COORD WITH SPC ABOUT POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH OVER KS ZNS
4/16...BUT WINDS NOW SHIFTING WLY SO WILL SUGGEST AGAINST IT. JUST
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON CAA SIDE OF SYSTEM THROUGH WED EVENING.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATED SFC-H7 LAYER AT/BLO 0 DEG C AFTER 03Z
THURS. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM BODES
WINDY CONDS ALL CWA THROUGH 06Z THURS.

NEXT H5 S/W EJECTING INTO SW KS BY THEN GIVING THE AREA MAYBE ITS
LAST SNOW OF THE SEASON. SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO ALL RAIN
AS H85 TEMPS WARM FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURS. FWC/FAN
TEMPS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND DONT SEE MUCH REASON TO CHANGE WITH
DIVERSE SOLNS OF MODEL OUTPUT. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PACKAGE NOT
HIGH WITH WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLNS. SFC/UPPER RIDGING BY FRI AND
SAT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND MILD CONDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

.GLD...NONE.

EJM

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-150600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1003 AM MDT (1103 AM CDT) TUE APR 14 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SYNOPSIS:

A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOUT 7500
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE TODAY...SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS.

MATHEWSON/MJV