Tornado Warning 10, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
200 PM CDT WED APR 15 1998

THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL KS
WITH A WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO. THE RIDGE SAT FROM ND TO AR. AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR AND PROFILER DATA OVER SD/NE
WAS SPREADING WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS ACROSS IA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN CO WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH IS NEAR THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX ACROSS AZ/NM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 40KTS WAS
INTERSECTING THE WARM FRONT SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN
KS/NE THIS AFTERNOON. OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND THEN HYDRO/SEVERE TSRA PROBLEMS FOR TOMORROW.

THE 12Z ETA/NGM/AVN INITIALIZED ALRIGHT AND AT 18Z REPRESENTED
REALITY. THE MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING THE INITIAL TWO SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF IT. THE KS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE TO NORTHEAST KS BY
MORNING. I BUY THE SLOWER NGM/AVN SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE ETA
SOLUTION BECAUSE THESE SOUTHWEST SYSTEMS GENERALLY COME OUT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED...AND THIS HAS CERTAINLY BEEN THE PATTERN THIS SPRING.
THE ETA IN UNCHARACTERICALLY FAST. THE RESULT TONIGHT WILL BE RAPIDLY
INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN 2/3S OF IA ALONG A
TIGHTENING 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO
NORTHERN MO BY 12Z WED. HENCE THE MAIN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL BE TO OUR
WEST BUT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR EASTERN IA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY 12Z. AFTER A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...THEY WILL STEADY OUT AS HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THICKER CLOUDS
MOVE IN. HENCE I FAVOUR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FWC/FAN GUIDANCE IN
WHICH THE SURFACE TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT.

WEDNESDAY ONE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WI WITH YET ANOTHER TO MOVE
INTO KS. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOWER LEVELS RESPOND
WITH A 45KT JET AND RATHER NICE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REACH I-80 BY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL POKE INTO THE UPPER
50S AS THE 500MB COLD POOL STEEPENS THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES TO 7-
7.5C/KM. AS THESE FEATURES OVERLAP EACH OTHER IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80
AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER. LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES FAVOUR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THERE MAY BE A TORNADO
OUTBREAK NEARBY TOMORROW ALONG WITH SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND.

IF THE SEVERE THREAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL BE
COMPOUNDED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL. MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE VARIOUS
SURFACE BOUNDARIES IS VERY GOOD. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPSIDENCE FROM 8-
16CM/S COMBINED WITH THE LIKELY RELEASE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN 1-2 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS TOMORROW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EVEN
IF THE FASTER ETA IS RIGHT...BOTH THE ETA/NGM QPF/S ARE VERY SIMILAR.
IN THEIR LOCATIONS.

A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY OUR OFFICE THIS AFTERNOON
OUTLINING THE THREAT AREA AND POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES.

I STRONGLY SUGGEST MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR
TOMORROW FOR THE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE.

CID 48/50  DBQ 46/40  MLI 47/40  BRL 50/50

HELGESON