Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
336 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 1998

FCST CHALLENGE MAINLY SVR WX THIS EVE.  NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TIME FOR
DISCUSSION WITH SVR WX MOVING INTO CWA.  ATMOS IS VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTN PER MODIFIED SHARP SOUNDING.  WITH CURRENT TMP/DWPT...LIS ARE
DOWN TO -11 WITH CAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG.  SHORT FUSE COMPOSITE
PINPOINTING SFC MOIST CONV FROM WEST CNTRL KS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
INTO CNTRL OK.  VSBL SAT LOOP SHOWING CU FIELD THIS AREA AS WELL.
SVR TSTM OVER WEST CNTRL KS BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE
SEWRD MOVMT IN THE FACE OF MOIST LOW LVL INFLOW.

EXPECT TSTMS TO CONT TO FIRE ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS SWRN KS THIS EVE.  IN ADDITION TO SVR WX...HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE A BIG THREAT WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A GOOD
POSSIBILITY.

TSTM ACTIVITY INCRG AS H5 VORT MAX OVR WRN COLO ERLY THS AFTN
APPCHS AREA.  MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE WITH NGM
HANDLING IT BEST ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW.  AVN SEEMED TO
WASH IT OUT TOO MUCH BY MON.  SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND BE IN VCNTY OF P28 BY 12Z MON.  SFC FLOW BECOMES NRLY THIS EVE
AS LOW MOVES EAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME ST DVLP AGAIN TNGT AS HIGH PRESS
NOSES IN BUT XPCT IT TO ERODE AGAIN DURING DAY MON.

SFC WNDS FCST TO BCM MORE ERLY OVER WRN HI PLNS MON EVE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH MAX HEATING ALNG ERN SLOPES OF ROCKIES COULD SET
OFF SOME TSRA.  SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE INTO WRN SCTNS OF CWA
DURING EVE HOURS SO WILL MENTION SLGT CHC FOR THAT.

.DDC...NONE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 058/076 056/082 060 60-
GCK 057/075 054/081 058 60-
EHA 055/077 053/080 059 502
LBL 058/076 055/083 060 60-
HYS 057/075 055/081 060 61-
P28 060/079 058/083 064 510

GERARD