Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Las Vegas, NV

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PDT THU AUG 7 1997

ISOLD TSTMS FORCED SVRL UPDTS THIS AFT. TSTMS MOST NUMEROUS OVR
ECNTRL NYE CO...CLOSEST TO CNTR OF MID LVL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION.  INJECTION OF MID LVL MSTR AND INSTABILITY NOTED THERE
EARLIER AND PSBL THAT UPR LVL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE
CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT.  UPR LOW CONTS TO DVLP OFF CA COAST W
OF PRINCIPLE RDG ACRS CNTRL NV/CA.  MODELS AGREE THAT HGTS WILL LWR
SOME AS UPR HIGH SHIFTS SEWD INTO AZ NEXT BY SAT.  "BAGGY" TROF
THEN REMAINS OFF W COAST INTO WEEKEND AND QUITE POSSIBLY THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL EJECT NUMEROUS MID/UPR LVL S/WVS THAT
WILL AID IN CONVECTION AS THE TRAVERSE NV IN SWLY FLOW.  NONE OF
THIS EVIDENT ON MODELS DUE TO SMALL SCALE NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS.

BASED ON AMT OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED TDA...IT IS APPARENT THAT
PLENTY OF MSTR CONTAMINATING UPR HIGH.  THIS MAKES IT EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO REALLY DEFINE WHERE TSTMS MIGHT BE SUPPRESSED.  WITH
THAT IN MIND HAVE BROAD BRUSHED MOST ZONES WITH ISOLD AFT/EVE TSTMS
THRU SAT.  TROUBLE SPOTS LIKELY TO CONT TO BE SCNTRL NV ZONES AS
MSTR CONTS TO CIRCULATE AROUND 5H RDG.  THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
WILL BE TO THE S WERE RICH LOW LVL MSTR CONTS TO POOL ALONG CO RVR
IN WEAK GULF SURGE.  THAT MSTR NOT LIKELY TO BE SCOURED OUT ANYTIME
SOON AND MAY YET WORK NWD INTO LAS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.  PER COOR
W/RNO EXTENDED WILL CONTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS OVR THE MTNS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF AVAILABLE MSTR AND MINOR S/WVS.  A LTL MORE
CONFIDENT IN DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS AS HGTS CONT TO LWR.
LAS 0001.

NEMETH

SRN NV...NONE
ERN CA...NONE
NW AZ ...NONE