Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 AM CST THU MAR 13 1997

PROBLEMS OF THE FCST RAIN TODAY AND TEMPS TONIGHT/FRI.

SFC MAP AND AREA 88D`S SHOWS FCST ON TARGET ATTM WITH STEADY RAIN AREA
PUSHING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS CWA.  WRN EDGE HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER FAR
SE KS...WHILE ERN EDGE HAS MADE BETTER PROGRESS TOWARD ECNTRL MO.
06Z MAP SHOWS TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS. ONE WITH SRN SYSTEM OVR ERN TX
PROVIDING OUR RAIN...AND THE OTHER OVR WRN KS WITH WARM FRONT EAST INTO
NRN MO.  ARCTIC COLD FRONT SEEN FROM NR CPR-VTN-FAR LINE GETTING READY
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

WILL STICK WITH THE AVN TODAY AS IT HAS DONE WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HRS.
BUT NGM/ETA ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TOO.  SRN STREAM VORT MAX/SFC LOW
TO MOVE NE INTO NE ARK THIS AFTN WHILE WRN KS LOW MOVES INTO NRN MO.
RAIN WITH SRN LOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN SHOULD START
TO TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM W TO E LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  TSTM
INDICES SHOWS BEST CHC OF ANY THUNDER OVR SE AND SCNTRL MO WITH MINIMAL
CHCS OVR REMAINDER OF AREA.  94O DOES NOT HAVE CWA IN ANY GENERAL TSTM
OUTLOOK.  ALSO AGREE IN KEEPING HEAVIEST RAINS TO OUR EAST...AND THUS
NO FFA NEEDED FOR MY CWA.    POPS TO DECREASE TO CHC TONIGHT WITH LOWEST
JLN/SE KS.

AS THE TWO LOWS COMBINE OVR NRN INDIANA TONIGHT COLD PLUNGE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY SOUTH..NR A STL-HRO LINE BY 06Z.  BY TIME COLD AIR GETS HERE
MOST..IF NOT...PRECIP WILL BE OVER.  BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR
LATE TONIGHT/FRI  MORNING.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING CLRG ON FRIDAY.
WINDS TO HOWL LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH RUSH OF COLD AIR.

AS FOR TEMPS...TEMPS SHOULD NOT RECOVER MUCH TODAY WITH CLDS AND RAIN
...EXCEPT FOR JLN/SE KS AS RAIN SHOULD END THIS AFTN.  FAN/FWC A LOT
COLDER THIS RUN THAN PAST RUNS...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM AT TEMPS IN
NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA WILL GO ALONG WITH THEM.  THIS WOULD MEAN CUTTING
PREV ZFP HIGHS BY A GOOD TEN DEGREES.

MY THOUGHTS FOR 1ST PD...
JLN/SE KS...PDS OF RAIN TODAY...ENDING THIS AFTN.  HIGH AR 60. SE 10-15.
SGF...PDS OF RAIN TODAY. HIGH MID 50S. SE 10-15.
UNO...RAIN TODAY...A TSTM PSBL. HIGH UPR 50S. SE 10-15.
AIZ/VIH...RAIN LIKELY.  HIGH LOWER 50S.  SE 10-15.
.
CCF
JLN RN 060/030 038/015 045 06+32
SGF RN 056/030 036/014 042 06831

RIDDLE

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST THU MAR 13 1997

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS LOW CONTINUES TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA AND WAS PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TODAY.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT ALL THAT UNSTABLE THUS NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN TODAY.  WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE BEFORE ENDING LATER TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ACROSS LOW WATER
BRIDGES.  THESE AREAS SHOULD BE AVOIDED WHEN DRIVING AS THE WATER DEPTH
WILL LIKELY BE DEEPER THAN OBSERVED.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTHEAST...A POWERFUL BLAST OF COLD
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LINDENBERG