Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
205 PM MDT SAT SEP 6 1997

THE FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT IS DETERMINING AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

COLORADO REMAINS UNDER A FLAT RIDGE WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING UP FROM MEXICO.  A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS EVIDENT
OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS BEEN TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND
LOW LEVEL WARMING.  THE LATEST GOES SOUNDINGS (1800 UTC) INDICATE
CAPE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BETWEEN 500 AND 1300 J/KG...AND
LIFTED INDICES -2 TO -5.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH MODEL FORECASTS
FROM 1200 UTC.   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER ONE INCH IN
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

THUS...WITH NO APPARENT DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...OR SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE BOUNDARIES...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE HIGHER
THAN 20-40 PERCENT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED...IF AT ALL.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND MEAN WINDS 10-20 MPH.

AFTER LOSING THE DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHEAST...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST AND
ENDING BY THE NORMAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL TIME (EXITING INTO KANSAS
BY MIDNIGHT).

FWC TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT APPEAR REASONABLE AS WELL AS POPS.

HAYNES

COZ060>081-070600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1200 PM MDT SAT SEP 6 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE
MORNING.  YOU CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PRODUCING BRIEF BUT DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY.

A COMBINATION OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ON THE PLAINS.

HAYNES

COZ060>081-070600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1200 PM MDT SAT SEP 6 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE
MORNING.  YOU CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PRODUCING BRIEF BUT DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY.

A COMBINATION OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ON THE PLAINS.

HAYNES

COZ076-077-079-081-062130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT SAT SEP 6 1997

VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST LAS ANIMAS...
EXTREME SOUTHERN BENT AND OTERO COUNTIES WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL TO NEAR 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER THROUGH 3 PM MDT.
THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN BUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA SINCE AROUND
2 PM...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT...SO THAT SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS... NORMALLY DRY WASHES...ARROYOS AND STREAM BEDS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED.

AT 235 PM MDT...RADAR SHOWED THE CENTERS OF TWO STORMS 21 MILES
SOUTH...AND 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LA JUNTA. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
MORE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT THAN MOVEMENT IN THEIR
LIFETIME...SINCE SHORTLY BEFORE 2 PM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BRING DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND SOME WILL
PRODUCE TO NEAR 3/4 INCH DIAMETER OR SMALLER HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOTORISTS ALONG HIGHWAY
109 SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...AS SHOULD PEOPLE IN THE AREA NEAR
THESE STORMS.

RMG

COZ076-077-079-081-062130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT SAT SEP 6 1997

VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST LAS ANIMAS...
EXTREME SOUTHERN BENT AND OTERO COUNTIES WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL TO NEAR 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER THROUGH 3 PM MDT.
THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN BUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA SINCE AROUND
2 PM...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT...SO THAT SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS... NORMALLY DRY WASHES...ARROYOS AND STREAM BEDS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED.

AT 235 PM MDT...RADAR SHOWED THE CENTERS OF TWO STORMS 21 MILES
SOUTH...AND 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LA JUNTA. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
MORE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT THAN MOVEMENT IN THEIR
LIFETIME...SINCE SHORTLY BEFORE 2 PM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BRING DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND SOME WILL
PRODUCE TO NEAR 3/4 INCH DIAMETER OR SMALLER HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOTORISTS ALONG HIGHWAY
109 SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...AS SHOULD PEOPLE IN THE AREA NEAR
THESE STORMS.

RMG