Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CST SAT APR 5 1997

WX KEEPING OFFICE IN THE BUSY MODE WITH WARNINGS SO WILL TRY TO BE
BRIEF.  TSTM LINE AND SHWR ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT
ADVANCES DEEPER INTO SE STATES WHERE RDGG REMAINS PERSISTENT. AS A
RESULT OF THIS RDGG TO THE E AND PERSISTENT UPR SWRLY FLOW TO THE
W...SFC FRONT ALG COAST SHUD STALL AND WEAKEN ACRS FL PENINSULA AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FM NW TOWARD COAST. UPPER NEG TILT THERMAL
TROF AND JET STREAM ENERGY...ROTATES NE THIS PD INTO UPR MIDWEST
INTRODUCING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT LATER ON SUN.  SVR THREAT
WL THUS BE ON THE DECLINE.  THIS CAN BE SEEN BY LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY UPSTREAM AND MODELS LOOK TO VERIFY THIS SCENARIO.  LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHC'S WILL TEND TO HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER
WITH SFC TROF IN VCNTY ALONG COAST THRU PART OF DAY SUN.

MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AFTER PASSAGE OF
STORMS.  AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 7
FEET IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
AFFECT AREA.

MOB 64/78/55/74 3300     PNS 67/78/58/75 4400
DTS 65/76/60/75 4400     EVR 61/78/54/73 4400 10

ALZ051>64-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-060600-

AREAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1100 AM CST SAT APR 5 1997

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
STATES...

A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON
EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING.

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION IS PULLING A
WARM...MOIST...TROPICAL...UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM...IN COMBINATION WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES...IS PROVIDING FOR BLUSTERY WINDS
FROM THE GROUND EXTENDING TO 7000 FEET HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND WIND PROFILE DATA OFF THE WSR-88D
INDICATE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION CHANGE WITH HEIGHT AND ADEQUATE
ENERGY FOR DEEP AND PERSISTENT ROTATING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS DURING
THE DAY.  WITH BETTER INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...STORMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...TORNADOES AND HAIL.

AS A RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN
GULF STATES IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BY EVENING...BETTER DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST...OUT OF THE AREA SO A DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE EXPECTED THEN...ALTHOUGH STORMINESS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING.

ACTIVATION OF SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WILL BE
REQUIRED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY
MID AFTERNOON.

ALZ051>64-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-060600-

AREAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1100 AM CST SAT APR 5 1997

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
STATES...

A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON
EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING.

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION IS PULLING A
WARM...MOIST...TROPICAL...UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM...IN COMBINATION WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES...IS PROVIDING FOR BLUSTERY WINDS
FROM THE GROUND EXTENDING TO 7000 FEET HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND WIND PROFILE DATA OFF THE WSR-88D
INDICATE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION CHANGE WITH HEIGHT AND ADEQUATE
ENERGY FOR DEEP AND PERSISTENT ROTATING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS DURING
THE DAY.  WITH BETTER INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...STORMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...TORNADOES AND HAIL.

AS A RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN
GULF STATES IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BY EVENING...BETTER DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST...OUT OF THE AREA SO A DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE EXPECTED THEN...ALTHOUGH STORMINESS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING.

ACTIVATION OF SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WILL BE
REQUIRED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY
MID AFTERNOON.