Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
145 AM CST SUN OCT 26 1997

WITH SFC LOW HANGING OVR NORTHERN OK COUPLED WITH HIGHEST VORT
LOBE NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF BELIEVE OCCLUSION WILL STALL
SFC FRNT FURTHER SOUTH OVR THE CENTRL GULF CST FROM S MS TO THE FL
PAN. CURRENTLY FRNT HAS MOVED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE LATEST ETA
SOLUTION...SO STILL BELIEVE FROPA WILL BE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED
OVR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA...SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE S AL AND
NWFL PAN. MODEL DATA DOES INDICATE SFC TO H5 MEAN MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH GOOD THERMALDYNAMIC FORCING TO MOVE EAST OF ENTIRE FA BY LATE
THIS AFT. LATER IN THE PD WITH 1000 TO 500 THKNS DECREASING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW 560 AND MEAN TEMPS FROM THE SFC TO 850 DIPPING FROM 18
TO 8C NEAR THE CST BY 00Z MON...BELIEVE MINS NEAR TO BELOW 40 FOR
MOST PLACES NEAR THE CST WILL SUFFICE WITH FREEZE WARNINGS OVER MUCH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH HIGHER CAPES IN THE ORDER OF 5000
J/KG AND HELICITIES OF 200 M/S2 OR BETTER REMAINING OVR THE GULF S OF
LA TO MOB POSSIBLY NEARING MAINLY THE NWFL CST UP TO 18Z BELIEVE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE MORNING HRS...
WITH POPS DROPPING OFF QUICLKY WEST OF A LINE FROM MOB TO NORTH OF
GROVEHILL.

OVER THE CSTL WATERS STRNG TO SEVERE TS LIKELY THRU THIS AFT WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE S AS FRONT APPROACHES. LATER IN THE
PD BELIEVE CURRENT THINKxING LOOKS GOOD WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KTS AS
DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR MOVES IN. SEAS AND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD.

MOB 72/45/60/36 7100  PNS 78/49/62/39 8200
DTS 79/52/64/43 8200  EVR 74/42/60/32 7100 32