Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
253 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 1997

A MOISTURE PLUME NOT DIRECTLY ASSOC WITH HURRICANE LINDA HAS MOVED A
BIT MORE EAST...AND AS OF 19Z EXTDD FROM THE BIG BEND...OVER SE/NM
AND THE PERMIAN BASIN...TO THE PNHDL. THIS MOISTURE IS SCT/BKN IN
COVERAGE WITH SOME AREAS AT THE SFC GETTING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
OTHERS LIKE MAF NOT AT THE MOMENT. LITTLE REMAINS OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE WX MOST THIS SUMMER. 18Z SFC ANLYS HAS
A WEAK SFC TROF MAINTAINING IT'S POSITION FROM NE NM TO THE VICINITY
OF ELP. SLIGHTLY HIR DEWPOINTS NOTED AROUND THE CWA COMPARED TO THE
PAST 24HRS...WITH THE USUAL CNVTN GOING IN THE DAVIS MTNS AND PARTS
OF THE MARFA PLATEAU.

THE GENERAL FCST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SHOULD BE ONE OF A DRYING
TREND...IF ONE DOES NOT CONSIDER THE PSBL INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE
LINDA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD PUSH THE THETA-E...AND ASSOCD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS WWD
TO THE MTNS. BUT...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT TROF IS FCST TO DIG ALONG
THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY FORCE THE HURRICANE TO
MOVE IN MORE NLY PATH. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR PERTINENT
STATEMENTS.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...EXPECT MORE SCT RW/TRW TO DVLP OFF THE MTNS.
GENERAL MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE MORE TO THE EAST
...WITH SCT TO WDLY SCT STORMS DVLPG OVER THE TRANS-PECOS AND NEARBY
PLAINS AS BOUNDARIES FROM THE MTN STORMS PROPAGATE EWD. FCST FOR THE
REGION WITH 30 POPS INVOF MTNS EARLY...THEN EVENING SHIFT CAN REDUCE
THEM AS CONDITIONS ALLOW. OTHERWISE CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD DO. FOR
TEMPS NEXT TWO PERIODS WILL GENLY FOLLOW PERSISTANCE. WILL NOTE HIER
POPS NEAR THE MTNS.. .WITH LESSER POPS TOWARD ERN PLAINS. COMMENTS
ARE WELCOME...

MAF  66/92  30/10
CNM  66/91  30/20
MRF  59/83  30/20
P07  72/93  20/10

RB/JP

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-130500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1128 AM CDT (1028 AM MDT) FRI SEP 12 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS: A STREAM OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LINDA...WILL FLOW OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...TO EAST OF EL PASO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY.

WITH MORE GOOD DAYTIME HEATING...AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...WILL HELP LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FIRST NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS AND TRANS-PECOS REGION BY THIS EVENING. ONE
OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT HIGH WIND GUSTS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.

RB/JP