Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
245 AM CDT (145 AM MDT) FRI JUN 27 1997

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH DEW POINTS AOA 60F AT 06Z.  KMAF RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MCS OVER SE NEW MEXICO ON A WEAKENING
TREND SINCE 06Z...WITH SOME FLOODING OF HIGHWAYS 137 AND 285 NEAR CNM
REPORTED BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM MDT.  OVERNIGHT CONVECTION APPEARS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AS EVIDENT ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

KMAF RADAR WIND PROFILE INDICATES SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 8K FEET BACKING
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT...WITH A WEAK 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST IN NEW MEXICO TODAY
ALLOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  MESO-ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAPES TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICIES AROUND -4 DURING LATE
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING FOR THE FEW STORMS THAT DO BREAK THE WEAK CAP.

THE CURRENT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID-MORNING.

TEMPS AND POPS BELOW A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND GUIDANCE.  POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DUE TO NORTHWARD
MOVING MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM CARLOS
AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

MAF  89/67  20/10
CNM  92/67  10/20
MRF  82/58  20/20
P07  88/69  10/10

FAGEN/WRINKLE