Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 1997

POPS AND TEMPS TO BE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. KLNX 88D CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAYES SPRINGS TO EAST OF HYANNIS TO OVER
LBF. ACCUS/TCU CLOUD FORMATIONS CAN BE VIEWED FROM THE WINDOW WHILE
SATELLITE SHOWING CB/TCU/CU FORMING ALONG LINE FROM OVER DEN TO SNY...
EAST TO ARTHUR. TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH
NORTHEN EDGE OF HOT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAP INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
OVER PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST UNTIL NEAR 5 PM THEN CAP WEAKENING WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WHICH DEVELOP NORTH OF A LINE
FROM CHAPPELL TO LBF TO BBW.

DRIER AIR SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH DEWPOINT FRONT
LIKELY EXTENDING FROM EAST OF MERRIMAN TO OGA THIS EVENING AND ALSO BE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK WINDS ALOFT
TO MAKE POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS SHOWING VARIATIONS WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ETA PREFERRED WITH NGM TEMPS TO COOL
AND PROGRESSION OF SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO BE HANDLED TO BE A MIX OF
ETA/NGM SOLUTIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD TAP INTO TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH BAND EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. A SECOND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SHORTWAVE
STILL LIFTING NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE STALLS SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HOWEVER WITH WEAK BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO THE SOUTHEAST NOT TO
CONFIDENT MODELS WILL HANDLE FEATURE WELL. CONSIDERING SHORTWAVE TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO MAKE POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST TILL MIDNIGHT. WHILE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

GRIDDED DATA SHOWED MOISTURE TO DECREASE OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKING AT 19Z SURFACE ANAL NOT TO SURE HOW FAR EAST DRYLINE TO
PROGRESS WITH MODELS SHOWING TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA TO WEAKEN. THEN BEST
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING WEST TO OVER THE FOOTHILLS...EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE BY 26/12Z. PRESENT FORECAST SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
EVENING AND BELIEVE FORECAST SHOULD BE MODIFIED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE PAST EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A
REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE ACTUAL COOLER AIR TO RESIDE NORTH OF SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARRALEL TO UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES
EAST ON SATURDAY. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST TO MAKE WIND FORECAST
DIFFICULT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH IS CLOSE TO PRESENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LBF BB2 067/098 066/096 061 19222  ANW BB 068/096 068/094 065 19334
OGA BB 066/099 066/095 065 19222  ONL BB 070/096 071/095 065 19334
IML BB 068/100 068/095 065 19222  BBW BB 068/099 070/097 065 19334
VTN BB 067/096 066/093 061 19333

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  NORTH PLATTE NE
418 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    16 NE NORTH PLATTE        NE   0.88 INCH HAIL
07/25/97   LINCOLN

DAUGHERTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  NORTH PLATTE NE
418 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    16 NE NORTH PLATTE        NE   0.88 INCH HAIL
07/25/97   LINCOLN

DAUGHERTY