Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CST WED APR 2 1997

...FCST CHALLENGE IS TIMING...AMOUNTS OF PRECIP AND EXTENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

12Z ANLYS SHOWS DEEP LOW OVER WESTERN US AND MODELS STRUGGLING WITH
HANDLING OF SYSTEM.  STRONG 130+ JET ON BACKSIDE WITH PRESSURE
FALL TO SW SUGGST SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT.  LATEST MIX OF
MODELS ALL SLOW SYSTEM OUT.  ALSO PRODUCT OF SYSTEM GOING FURTHER SW
IS ALLOWS FOR  COLD AIR TO SAG FASTER.  18Z ANALYSIS SHOWS EVEN
ETA TOO SLOW ON SYSTEM.  HENSE BEST CAHNCE OF PRECIP SOUTH AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.  GOOD OVERRUNNIG WILL ALLOW FOR
PRECIP TO COVER MOST OF CWA BY AM WITH MIX OF RAIN...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HEAVY PRECIPATION AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SO MENTION.

EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH AND EAST MEADE TO
GREENSBURG TO PRATT LINE THIS EVENING WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONCERN BEHIND FRONT AS DEWPOINTS ARE AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE.  HENCE
LIKELY OR GREATER POPS FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTH NEXT TWO PERIODS.
AGAIN GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS SO GO WITH HEAVY AT TIMES
IN WORDING.  88D HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FIRING ALONG BOUNDARY
ATTM WHICHA ALSO SUPPORTS THIS PRECIP SCENARIO.

COLD AIR AND CLOUDS GOING BELOW GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY TOMORROW.
WILL SLOW SYSTEM PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT EVEN FROM LATEST PACKAGE
BASED ON ANALYSIS SO HIGH POPS THROUGH PERIOD 4.  GULF OPEN AND WITH
LARGE OVERRUNNING AND COPIOUS MOISTURE ALL INGREDIENTS FAR LARGE
SCALE PRECIPITATION EVENT.   MAY HAVE FLOODING POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW IN PARTS OF CWA DEPENDING ON AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

.DDC...NONE.

DDC 043/050 049/062 043 8+8
GCK 041/049 048/061 041 8+8
EHA 040/048 046/064 039 8+8
LBL 042/049 048/061 041 8+8
HYS 040/047 046/057 042 658
P28 045/052 051/065 046 8+8

NICHOLS

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 AM CST WED APR 2 1997

SYNOPSIS:  A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...BEST CHANCE IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A ELKHART
TO GARDEN CITY TO LACROSSE LINE.

SPOTTER MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WE WILL BE FINISHING SPOTTER PRESENTATIONS DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
YOU ARE ENCOURAGED AND WELCOME TO ATTEND.

TONIGHT...COMANCHE COUNTY...7 PM COLDWATER HIGH SCHOOL
APRIL 3RD...MEADE COUNTY...7 PM FIRE STATION
APRIL 11TH...TREGO COUNTY...7 PM AT THE REC BUILDING IN WAKEENEY
NICHOLS