Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 PM CDT THU MAY 22 1997

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...

SATELLITE SHOWING NUMEROUS CU DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE SOME CLEARING ATTEMPTED TO TAKE PLACE EARLIER. THE REST OF THE
CWA HAS REMAINED CLOUDY AND THIS HAS HAD A BIG EFFECT ON TEMPS. DDCS 88D
BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME RETURNS OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO ALONG THE
SFC TROF. EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TO PUSH TO THE EAST DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO THE MOISTURE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALL THE WAY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE TROF
SLOWLY TO EAST JUST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MORNING WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO JUST SIT AND SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DUE TO
ALL OF THIS AND THE GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF. WESTERN ZONES SHOULD SATURATE AND CLOUD BACK UP WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS FALL MUCH
OVERNIGHT. WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SFC TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND SITUATES
ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ETA FORECASTING LIS IN THE -2
TO -4 RANGE BY AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...THE TROF MAY AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER THE POPS TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
WEST. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE EAST ALSO DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE WESTERN CWA. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS THERE BASED ON THIS. THE REST OF THE CWA
REMAINS IN THE PVA AREA AND THEREFORE IN THE CLOUDS. DUE TO THIS...WILL
GO BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS EVERYWHERE...
THEN THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE EAST AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
BEGINS TO BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOULD SEE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT SO
WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

SATURDAY...WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS GOING FOR LINGERING MORNING
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF ZONES WITH THE REST OF THE REGION
JUST PARTLY CLOUDY BY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE AIDED BY THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND
NICELY FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. GUIDANCE HANDLES THE CLEARING
PRETTY WELL AND WILL THEREFORE STICK CLOSE TO IT FOR HIGHS.

.DDC...NONE

DDC 055/071 058/086 057 555
GCK 054/074 057/088 056 744
EHA 053/078 054/090 056 744
LBL 054/077 055/089 057 744
HYS 054/070 057/084 0|55 555
P28 058/072 061/089 062 555

PARKIN