Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 1997

18Z SURFACE MAP INDICATING TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH WESTERN 2/3 OF FA
WITH THERMAL LOW JUST EAST OF DDC.  ATMOSPHERE STILL MODERATELY CAPPED
BUT EXPECT CCT TO BE REACHED IN SERN ZONES AFTER 21Z.  MODIFIED
SOUNDING OFFERED AROUND 1000 J/KG AT DDC AND 1500 J/KG IN P28 AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD FIRE MAINLY SERN ZONES WHERE
CAP IS WEAKEST AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BEST.  WITH H7-H5 DELTA T AN
IMPRESSIVE 23 DEG THIS MORNING CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD STORM OVER THE
WEST ZONES ONCE CCT IS REACHED...EVEN THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH NOT
MENTIONED IN ZONES...ISOLD SEVERE WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS A
POSSIBILITY IN EASTERN ZONES WHERE STORMS DO POP THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...STRONG LATE SPRING FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP THIS FP OVER AREA.  ETA INITIALIZED BEST WITH
DOUBLE VORT ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH ETA IS ALSO A LITTLE TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH LEAD WAVE.  ALSO...ALL MODELS INITIALIZED SEVERAL DEGREES
TOO COOL AT H7 HOWEVER GOOD CAA IS UPSTREAM AND SHOULD GRAZE FA ONCE H7
TROUGH PASSES.  BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH WITH TRAILING
VORT LOBE SHEARING OUT OVER NE AND NORTHERN KS DURG DAY MONDAY.  WITH
DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS BEHIND THERMAL TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
LATER TONIGHT OVER CWA.  MSL PRESSURES AROUND 4 MB TOO LOW ON MODELS
UPSTREAM IN CANADIAN AIRMASS AND BELIEVE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SCHEDULE IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.  ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR
THUNDER ALL AREAS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.  WILL MENTION
ISOLD EVENING STORMS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND BEST CHANCE LATER
TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...H9-H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS
AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ALL BUT
SOUTHERN ZONES.  FORECAST PROBLEM IS RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
WEST BUT NOT MENTION PRECIP. WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER FA MONDAY NIGHT WE
SHOULD RADIATE INTO 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

TUESDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS ROCKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD SW LOW.  UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH
SOME RETURN MOISTURE AND INCREASING PVA WEST MAY SUPPORT FRONT RANGE
CONVECTION WORKING INTO WEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HAVE INCLUDED 20
PERCENT POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.  LONGER RANGE LOOKS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED CONVECTION AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS INTO
THE PICTURE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW.  R

.DDC...NONE

DDC 051/067 045/072 052 610
GCK 050/066 045/073 052 61-
EHA 050/065 047/075 051 511
LBL 052/066 047/075 053 51-
HYS 048/065 043/073 054 610
P28 056/071 048/074 058 720

STOUT