Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 PM CDT WED AUG 13 1997

...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WHERE MCS(S) FIRE AND TRACK TONIGHT AND
THEN LOCATION OF WARM FRONT THU AND THU NIGHT...EXTENDED LOOKS FUN
TOO...

18Z SFC MAP SUPPORTS ETA SFC FEATURES BETTER THAN THE NGM...THOUGH
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BIASES...THERE REALLY ARE NOT THAT MAY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM. THERE IS A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NW
NEBRASKA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THIS TRIPLE
POINT. THERE IS A VERY NICE THERMAL/MOISTURE COUPLET
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE UP TO THIS TRIPLE
POINT...SO ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED THINK TSRA POSSIBLE
ALL ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP AN ISENTROPICALLY
FORCED AREA OF PCPN W/THE NRN STREAM VORT OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND
MOVE IT INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST BY MORNING...AND DO VERY LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH A 30-35 KT LL JET I RATHER DOUBT THAT
CONVECTION WILL SPARE WRN/CNTRL NE AND NRN KS. HOWEVER...HOW FAR SW
IT GETS...AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT BECOMES...IS ANOTHER QUESTION. ICT
MENTIONED THAT WE WILL REALLY BE IN A MOISTURE DIVERGENT SITU BY
MORNING WITH BEST THETA-E/THERMAL ADVECTION WAY...WAY TO OUR NE.
ALSO A VORT MEANDERING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE CONVECTION OVER OK OVERNIGHT...ALSO HELPING TO ROB
MOISTURE.

THU THE FLOW TURNS MARKEDLY TO THE SW OVER WRN CWA. ANY OTHER TIME I
WOULD REALLY GO ABOVE MOS...BUT AS WE HAVE BEEN SO WET
LATELY...THINK WE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME EVEN REACHING MOS NUMBERS.
ALSO WE MAY DEVELOP A FAIR CU FIELD AS WELL. HOWEVER...IF H8 CAP IS
STRONG ENOUGH...CU MAY NOT FORM AND WE MAY EXCEED MOS WET GROUND OR
NOT. AS FOR POPS...DRY TROUGH WILL EXTEND NE TO SW ACROSS AREA..W/H5
VORT FIELD INDICATING WHAT COULD BE A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF FORCING
ALONG AND TO THE EAST. AGEO SFC FLOW WILL CERTAINLY POOL VERY HIGH
DWPTS ALONG THE TROUGH...SO IF WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NO REASON
THERE SHOULD/NT BE SOME RATHER POTENT (STILL 30KTS AT H5) BOOMERS BY
EVENING.

THU NIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE EAST...THOUGH SW H8
FLOW SHOULD GET IT OUT IN A HURRY. WILL GO 40 POPS OUT THERE...(IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS) AND LOWER ELSEWHERE. LOWS NEAR MOS.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A GOOD WRLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN THIS
WOULD BE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO KILL MOS HIGHS...BUT WITH MOIST
GROUND WILL FOLLOW MOS. PESKY SHEAR AXIS OR NOT...DO NOT SEE
ANYTHING HAPPENING POP-WISE DURING THE DAY.

.DDC...NONE

DDC 066/089 065/092 067 433
GCK 065/090 062/093 066 433
EHA 064/091 061/095 065 433
LBL 064/091 063/094 065 433
HYS 067/088 066/092 067 434
P28 070/090 070/094 070 434

MCAVOY

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1112 AM CDT WED AUG 13 1997

SYNOPSIS: THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SERVE TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
NORTH EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT
IS ANTICIPATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET NORTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...THOUGH THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS LATER
THIS EVENING.

MCAVOY