Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 PM CST WED NOV 06 1996

OBVIOUS CONCERNS ARE HVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

USING 19Z SFC OBS...COLD FRONT ON A SZL-JLN LINE.  WIDESPREAD RAINS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF FRONT OVR LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION...BUT
RAIN IS MORE IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT FROM JLN TO TUL.

PER COORD WITH STL...SEE NO REASON CHANGE EARLIER THINKING OF GOING WITH
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF CWA...FROM CAMDENTON TO JOPLIN AND
POINTS EAST TOWARD POPLAR BLUFF.

NGM SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST ATTM...ESP WITH QPF PROGS.  FRONT IS THOUGH
A TAD FURTHER EAST THAN NGM PROGS...BUT THINK FRONT TO SLOW DOWN THIS EVE.
CONSIDERABLY AS UPR FLOW IS SW FROM THE SFC TO 30H OVR MO.  WITH FRONT
MOVING SO SLOWLY EAST...TSTMS WILL TRAIN FROM NE TX TO SE OKLA AND INTO
SW/SCNTRL MO TONIGHT.  AGREE WITH 94Q AND QPF.  FRHT81 SHOWS APPROX 2.25
INCHES FOR SGF BTWN 18Z-18Z.  FFG VALUES FOR 6-HRLY RAINS GENERALLY RUN
2-3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS.

RAIN TO END THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE WEST...FOLLOWED BY QUICK CLEARING
IN THE MORNING FOR JLN/SE KS AND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FOR SGF/AIZ.

MY THOUGHTS FOR 1ST PD...
AS DISCUSSED WILL ADVISE FFA FOR THE AREA FOR CAMDEN....POLK...
DADE TO JASPER COUNTIES AND POINTS EAST.  WOULD NOT PUT ANY SE KS
COUNTY IN WATCH.

FOLLOW CURRENT ZFP FOR LOWS TONIGHT...IE LOWER 40S WEST TO 45-50 EAST.

CCF
SGF EU 045/053 029/057 032 06+2-
JLN (BU 042/053 032/059 035 06+--

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KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST WED NOV 6 1996

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

.
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING A BIG THREAT FOR TONIGHT...
...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF SEDALIA MISSOURI TO NEAR
COLUMBUS KANSAS AT MIDDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND EXTEND
NEAR A WARSAW TO CARTHAGE TO ANDERSON LINE BY 6 PM.  A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF A SALEM TO HARTVILLE TO BRANSON LINE.

AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED AND AS A RESULT THE ATMOSPHERE AS
BECOME UNSTABLE.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE FROM ROLLA TO LEBANON TO SPRINGFIELD TO
BRANSON AND POINTS EAST TO WEST PLAINS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL TURN TO HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO TRAIN NORTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF A CAMDENTON TO JOPLIN LINE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES IN MOST SECTIONS FROM 6 PM TONIGHT
TO 6 AM THURSDAY.  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4 INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.  WHILE THE AREA HAS NOT SEEN MUCH RAIN RECENTLY...HEAVY RAINS
IN EXCESS OF 2.50 INCHES ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING ALONG
STREAMS AND RIVERS.  BUT REMEMBER...URBAN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS CAN ALSO OCCUR WITH MUCH LESS AMOUNTS.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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MOZ057>058-068>071-079>083-088>098-101>106-070518-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 PM CST WED NOV 6 1996

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A CAMDENTON TO JOPLIN LINE.  INCLUDED
IN THIS WATCH ARE JOPLIN...SPRINGFIELD...WEST PLAINS...
BRANSON...LEBANON...CAMDENTON....ROLLA AND THAYER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAIN NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA AND INTO MISSOURI DURING THE NIGHT.

THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 1.50
TO 2.50 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF A CAMDENTON TO JOPLIN
LINE.  LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WHILE THE STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING RATHER LOW AS OF THIS
MORNING...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES
TONIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING.

REMEMBER...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.  THIS WILL BE THE MOST COMMON
FLOODING THREAT TONIGHT.

RESIDENTS NEAR FLOOD PRONE AREAS MUST REMAIN ALERT.  NEVER ATTEMPT
TO DRIVE ACROSS ROADS THAT ARE COVERED WITH WATER...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

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